Kentucky Derby Radar – Chapter 5

By Jude T. Feld

Three straight weekends of Kentucky Derby (G1) preps and little to show for it – Five horses bouncing around like pinballs down the Tampa Bay Downs stretch, none of whom seemed to want to win; Two longshots, noses apart at the end of the Florida Derby (G1), both of whom had been creamed by Eskendereya in their last starts; Trainer Todd Pletcher’s bench player being lucky enough to find his nose in front of several so-so Derby prospects at the Louisiana Derby (G2) and and a previously unbeaten Bob Baffert trainee getting shot down at Sunland Park. For me, the only Grade 1 event of this three weeks was dinner at Brigtsen’s in New Orleans.

LOOKIN AT LUCKY ($1,390,000 tops graded earnings list) ran an incredible race in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park, clipping heels with Noble’s Promise down the backstretch and then re-rallying to get the chrome. Trainer Bob Baffert has always been high on the son of Smart Strike and his most recent performance has done nothing to dispel our confidence in this colt to win Kentucky Derby (G1) number four for the Hall of Famer. After an impressive 1:12 flat workout at Santa Anita on March 28, his Hall of Fame trainer pronounced him 90% sure to start in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

ESKENDARAYA ($150,000) was the buzz horse the week before the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) and he did not disappoint, cruising to an imposing 8 ½-length victory. Trainer Todd Pletcher was pointing his charge to the Florida Derby (G1), the next logical stop for the son of Giant’s Causeway. He was the heavy antepost favorite for that one, but owner Zayat Stables called an audible and their colt is reportedly headed to the Wood Memorial (G1) instead.

AWESOME ACT ($210,000) won the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct in visually impressive fashion. The Awesome Again colt, trained by British-based Jeremy Noseda, was making his first start on the real dirt and his first since finishing fourth in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G2). Noseda said the Wood Memorial (G1) April 3 at the Big A is the plan.

INTERACTIF ($270,450) showed his mettle with a nice closing effort behind “lone f” winner Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (G2). The son of Broken Vow, from the Todd Pletcher barn, has plenty of graded earnings to make the Derby and seems to act on any surface. His final prep is slated to be the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland.

NOBLE’S PROMISE ($708,000) has never been out of the money. His excellent second-place finish behind Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel (G2) was the third time he has been beaten by that rival but the closest margin yet. Could he be the new Sham?

MISSION IMPAZIBLE ($450,000) put it all together in the Louisiana Derby (G2) after only four starts and one race around two turns. Lightly raced and improving colts are highly sought after this time of year, so it wouldn’t be a stretch to think another leap forward on the first Saturday in May can be expected from the Todd Pletcher trained son of Unbridled’s Song.

ENDORSEMENT ($400,000) got just that from rival trainer Bob Baffert who said after the Sunland Derby (G3) loss by his previously unbeaten Conveyance, “I think the horse that beat us, of all the others I’ve seen lately, that was pretty impressive. I think we saw a star born today.” Shannon Ritter trains the talented son of Distorted Humor, who has made steady improvement in each of his four starts and seems destined for more.

DUBLIN ($273,208) probably bounced a little in the Rebel (G2), off his nice run against Conveyance in the Southwest (G3), especially after posting a couple of bullet workouts in between. With two races off the layoff, Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas can back off of him a bit. Look for a more patient ride from Corey Nakatani in the Arkansas Derby (G2).

OFF THE SCREEN SINCE CHAPTER 4

RADIOHEAD ($196,332) did not repeat his impressive allowance score in the Florida Derby (G1), under a cloud of a possible quartercrack. He’s playing catch-up now and he is too far back.

MENDIP ($200,000) had a rough trip but still found the older colts too much to handle in the UAE Derby (G2) and would have to contend with shipping and climate changes off a hard race. We’ll have to pass.

DISCREETLY MINE ($355,000) exposed himself as a one-hit wonder in the Louisiana Derby (G2) after winning the Risen Star (G3) parade. Really doesn’t seem like a move forward could be expected going a mile and a quarter with even more speed breathing on him. He could be a very useful horse in the right spots but the Kentucky Derby (G1) isn’t one of them.

CONVEYANCE ($210,000) was handed his first defeat by Endorsement in the Sunland Derby (G3). He set pretty easy fractions and was unable to hold his lead at a mile and an eighth, so the feeling here is a mile and a quarter could really be a problem.

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