SIX EARLY KENTUCKY DERBY PICKS

By Jude T. Feld

It seems a little early to me, but many racehorsereport.com visitors have asked the perennial question, “Who do you like in the Derby?” So here it is – my first foray into the 2011 Kentucky Derby (G1). There are only six, but I’m sure as the season progresses, someone else will catch my eye. Stay tuned for that. Certainly, as we shake the cobwebs out from last year’s Triple Crown and make room for the 2011 stuff in our brain, a reminder of the sire, dosage index and trainer will come in handy.

UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie 2.20 Pletcher)

There are just not enough superlatives to describe the two-year-old performances of Uncle Mo. Imposing in stature with a powerful stride and professional attitude there is no wonder why he was 2010’s Juvenile Champion. I love the “old school” management of turning him out after the Breeders’ Cup. He should come back stronger than ever, refreshed and ready to roll. Trainer Todd Pletcher is pointing him for the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 12. Already a star, the son of Indian Charlie, enthusiastically owned by Mike Repole, has the feel of a very special horse. Here’s his maiden win that got me immediately on the bandwagon:

TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini 2.38 Mott)

When you win the Nashua (G2) and the Remsen (G2) by open lengths, you must have more ability than most of your peers. Hall of Fame trainer Billy Mott has indicated that his talented colt will make his three-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on February 26 at Gulfstream Park. The son of Bernardini, owned by Live Oak Plantation, is currently training over the deep track at Payson Park in Florida and should be legged-up for a solid performance upon his return.

JAYCITO (Victory Gallop 3.00 Baffert)

Impressive winner of the Norfolk (G2) during the Oak Tree at Hollywood Park meeting, Jaycito looked like a formidable foe for Uncle Mo in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Churchill Downs. That race turned out to be a debacle for the son of Victory Gallop, who race all over the track in a very uncharacteristic performance. Subsequently transferred from the barn of Mike Mitchell to that of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, the Zayat Stable colorbearer is currently in training at Santa Anita and being pointed for the Robert B. Lewis (G2) on February 12. His Norfolk (G2) was pretty special:

ROGUE ROMANCE (Smarty Jones 3.00 McPeek)

Rallying from dead last, Rogue Romance mowed down the Bourbon (G3) field on the turf during the Keeneland fall meeting, to earn a chance at the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Beaten slightly over 10 lengths in that event, many have dismissed the son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Smarty Jones as a better turf horse. A look at the replay will show that he was fanned out five-wide into the first turn and was still taking the overland route turning for home. His race was much better than looked and with nearly $300,000 of graded earnings in his bank account, trainer Kenny McPeek can run Catesby Clay’s colt anywhere he wants. Here’s the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1):

SANTIVA (Giant’s Causeway 1.67 Kenneally)

It is always worrisome when a horse has had more trainers than Sinatra had wives, but just because owner Tom Walters keeps switching barns, we can’t ignore his colt’s ability.
Trainer Eddie Kenneally won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs with the son of Giant’s Causeway after he finished second in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland for trainer Todd Pletcher. Obviously talented and bred to run all day, Santiva will fly under the radar for a while and might be a good key horse in the first Kentucky Derby (G1) future wager the weekend of February 18, as he is not scheduled to be seen under the red and white checked silks until the Fountain of Youth (G2) on February 26. His Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) performance was ultra game:

BRETHREN (Distorted Humor 3.00 Pletcher)

The WinStar Farm colt is undefeated as he heads towards the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs on February 12. With just maiden and allowance wins to his credit, the Todd Pletcher trainee needs to amass some graded earnings while avoiding his stablemate Uncle Mo. A half-brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Super Saver, Brethren has lots to live up to, but he seems to be up to the task and his connections have plenty of Triple Crown experience to place him effectively. This is his allowance victory at Churchill Downs:

ON THE RADAR:

WILKINSON, ASTROLOGY, TAPIZAR, DIALED IN, SOLDAT, MONZON,MUCHO MACHO MAN, BOYS FROM TOSCANOVA & COMMA TO THE TOP

This entry was posted on Sunday, January 23rd, 2011 at 9:09 am and is filed under Featured Articles. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.