Kentucky Derby Watch List – Volume 6

By Jude T. Feld

“Clarity of thought” is often talked about but seldom found. It came to me at 2:29 a.m. on Monday morning. Baffert’s stumbling, bumbling interview after the Rebel (G2) meant he really was impressed by The Factor, so I put him above Jaycito on the list. Santiva’s schedule from the Fair Grounds to Keeneland makes absolutely no sense and I didn’t like the way Brethren looked in the paddock on Tampa Bay Derby (G2) day and running in the Arkansas Derby isn’t going to put any weight on him, so I took them off completely. Rogue Romance went to the showers with a broken foot, so he is missing as well. Here’s my current band of merry men:

UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie 2.20 Pletcher)

Uncle Mo returned to the races and was given the nice gift of “walkover” courtesy of the jocks room. This colt “is indeed the real deal” that Tom Durkin says he is. “The Wood has been the plan all along,” says his trainer Todd Pletcher, but the conditioner also indicated a Florida Derby (G1) run is possible for the best three-year-old in the country.

SOLDAT (War Front 2.47 McLaughlin)

A bullet work of 1:00 3/5 at Palm Meadows, Sunday March 20, has done little to dispel our enthusiasm for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin’s colt. When you hear that the son of War Front is doing, “Better than ever,” it makes you like him all the more. I think the son of War Front has lots left in the tank and is sitting in a cozy spot with two weeks to the Florida Derby (G1) and then five weeks to the first Saturday in May.

THE FACTOR (War Front 2.73 Baffert)

I have never seen Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert at a loss for words but I have seen guys who couldn’t speak English give better interviews than the Silver Fox did after Rebel (G2). It was like when Kirk Gibson hit his famous home run and announcer Jack Buck said, “I don’t believe what I just saw!” This colt moved into a different dimension with his performance, rating nicely and drawing away, despite running on a speed biased track against less than top company. I think Bob even impressed himself with his “old school” training job. Now he knows why Charlie Whittingham worked so many stakes horses a mile. See and believe:

JAYCITO (Victory Gallop 3.00 Baffert)

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was pleased with the son of Victory Gallop as he started last but finished fast in the San Felipe (G2), his first start since the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and the first time he saddled the colt. With this effort under his belt, Baffert can fine tune Jaycito’s workouts, adding speed and conditioning to the Zayat Stable colorbearer, who should move forward again in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). “He really needs more distance,” Baffert said.

PREMIER PEGASUS (Fusaichi Pegasus 3.62 Cho)

The ultra-talented colt took the blinkers off and just waltzed home in the San Felipe (G2) after getting a perfect trip. Just like his Kentucky Derby-winning sire, Fusaichi Pegasus, he owns excellent tactical speed and showed an explosive late run. That’s the kind of balance that comes in handy in Louisville. His South Korean-born trainer, Myung Kwon Cho, is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby (G1), having owned Video Ranger who finished fourth to Unbridled in the 1990 edition.

STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini 2.25 Pletcher)

If trainer Todd Pletcher is smart, and I think he’s brilliant placing Derby hopefuls, the second half of the powerful Mike Repole entry will run in the Arkansas Derby (G2). Soldat seems like a helluva lot more competition than The Factor, who’s ability at nine furlongs is still slightly dubious, as he just beat Caleb’s Posse, who is bred to be a Quarter Horse. The Gotham (G3) winner has been stablemate Uncle Mo’s steady workmate this year and it has certainly forced him up the ladder. A nice pedigree certainly doesn’t hurt him either. He breezed an easy half in :50 and change Sunday to stretch his legs for the first time since his Big Apple victory.

TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini 2.38 Mott)

Following his lackluster breeze on March 7, the son of Bernardini worked a “best of the morning” 1:01 1/5 on March 13. Garret Gomez was named his new rider last week too. By all accounts he was training like a bomb and was fit and ready to take on his peers in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Yet he struggled mightily to finish third. Now, questions abound. Was he as good as we thought he was? Was a mile and an eighth too much off a layoff? Will he bounce off that race or move forward? I think Hall of Fame trainer Billy Mott is frustrated with this colt as we are.

TOBY’S CORNER (Bellamy Road 1.86 Motion)

Had some high hopes for Dianne Cotter’s homebred after his big Whirlaway victory at Aqueduct but a wide trip in the Gotham (G3) may have cost him a move forward. All in all it wasn’t a bad performance and getting away from Aqueduct to run in the Illinois Derby (G3) at Hawthorne will no doubt help his cause. In the care of top trainer H. Graham Motion, the son of Bellamy Road should run all day and into the night. Belmont (G1)?

ON THE RADAR:

ASTROLOGY (A.P. Indy 3.42 Asmussen), CALEB’S POSSE (Posse 2.00 Von Hemel) and CASPER’S TOUCH (Touch Gold 1.53 McPeek)

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