Pick To Click

by Jude T. Feld

The Preakness (G1) is the Triple Crown’s stepchild. Always a handicapping puzzle, Maryland’s biggest race usually pits the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner against those he or she vanquished at Churchill Downs and several new shooters who passed the Derby due to injury or supposed better management.

Dubbed “the greatest race in America,” the Kentucky Derby (G1) is the most coveted prize among Thoroughbred owners in the United States and arguably, the world. The Belmont (G1) it is said, “stamps a horse as one who is able to carry his speed a classic distance.” This leaves the Preakness (G1) in the unenviable position to be “the spoiler of a Triple Crown bid” or a “steppingstone” to the Belmont (G1) and a possible Triple Crown.

Usually, a sophomore who competed in the Derby wins the Preakness (G1), yet several steeds opt to wait for Old Hilltop. This year is no exception, with Malibu Moonshine, Scrappy T., Hal’s Image and Galloping Grocer all lined up to take on Giacomo, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex and the rest of the crew who finished far behind them in Louisville.

The 130th running of the Preakness (G1) is another face off between the Derby winner, Giacomo, runner-up Closing Argument and third-place finisher Afleet Alex with their last race rivals and the four new faces. The question is, who is going to win?

One of the first axioms a horseplayer learns is, “Bet the inside speed at Pimlico.”

Trainer John Shirreffs’ heart must have sank when Giacomo drew the 13-hole. His only hope is a blistering pace and a miracle trip. Jockey Mike Smith is in the Hall of Fame but he’ll have to utilize all of his talents to save ground into the first turn.

We’ll have to toss him.

Closing Argument is in the seven gate – a better draw than Giacomo for sure, but still a little bit in the tules for Pimlico. His race in the Derby was excellent and if he moves forward and repeats his Holy Bull (G3) victory, there might be some black and blue stripes being painted on the weathervane.

Chance.

With a “two-a-day” training regimen, Tim Ritchey has taken a horse with tremendous speed and a sprinter’s body style and gotten him to win going a mile and an eighth. Heck, he almost got Afleet Alex to go a mile and a quarter. We could make him a contender at the Preakness (G1) distance of a mile and three sixteenths but the 12-post will probably make him run at least a mile and a quarter again, which seems too far.

Pass.

Noble Causeway warms up like an aged running back on a January morning. This didn’t seem to bother him in the Florida Derby (G1) but the Sunshine State isn’t the favorite of the arthritic geriatric set for nothing. Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens jumped aboard the massive colt for the first time on Derby day and preceded to warm him up like a $2500 claimer from Les Bois Park. Forwardly placed nearing the wire the first time by, Stevens was forced to check off horse’s heels. The Nick Zito trainee just ran around the track after that. Stevens takes him back and will undoubtedly know his funky gait better this time. In the number three post position for the Preakness (G1) Noble Causeway could easily hit the board.

Superfecta possibility.

Owners who fire their trainers and trainers who fire their jockeys almost never win the Derby. The racing gods just won’t allow it. Karma might just be the number one Kentucky Derby (G1) handicapping factor, so maybe it shouldn’t have been such a big surprise when Giacomo, named after Sting’s son, won the 131st running.

“You dance with the guy who brung ya’,” Charlie Whittingham used to say.

The good news for trainer William P. White is that High Fly didn’t win the Derby.

The good news for Live Oak Plantation owner Charlotte Weber is that the Karmic influences usually clean the slate right after the Derby prices are posted.

High Fly has excellent speed, drew the two-hole and will once again have Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey in the irons. The first time the son of Atticus was ever out of the money was in the Kentucky Derby (G1), when he was on or near a blistering pace and almost any of his other races make the Zito-trained colt a huge contender.

High Fly is the pick to click, allowing the Preakness (G1) to spoil another Triple Crown bid.

This entry was posted on Saturday, January 8th, 2005 at 5:27 pm and is filed under Featured Articles. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.