10 Horses That Can Win the 138th Kentucky Derby (G1)
April 19th, 2012By Jude T. Feld Follow @racehorsereport
With the Kentucky Derby (G1) just a couple of weeks away, it is time to post the list of three-year-olds I am considering for America’s greatest race. It is an unusually strong group this year, so there are more horses on this list than usual.
In my capacity as analyst on Horse Racing Radio Network broadcasts, I have been fortunate to see most of these horses in person – both racing and training – and I will continue to monitor their workouts as I prepare my workout report for Brisnet.com and Twinspires.com which will be available during Derby week.
This list will be updated regularly as news and workouts develop. The horses are listed in current order of preference with (Trainer * Jockey – Dosage x Sire) for your convenience.
UNION RAGS (Michael Matz * Julien Leparoux – 2.14 x Dixie Union)
Arguably the best looking colt on the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail, Union Rags was the victim of a very troubled trip in the Florida Derby (G1). It is my opinion that he was never in a position to win at any point of the race and much best that day. He continues to train well and his trainer, who knows what it takes to win the Derby, is brimming with confidence. If his jockey can work out a decent trip in the 20-horse field, I think he is the most likely to be wearing the roses.
GEMOLOGIST (Todd Pletcher * Javier Castellano – 2.73 x Tiznow)
Everybody loves a winner and recently those horses that enter the Kentucky Derby (G1) on an unbeaten streak, namely Barbaro and Smarty Jones, have done quite well on the first Saturday in May. His game victory over Alpha in the Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial (G1) was just his second start of the year and he should be ready for his all-time best in his third race off the layoff. He owns a graded stakes win at Churchill Downs too and although that is not a harbinger of Derby success, it eliminates the, “Will he run good on the surface?†variable.
CREATIVE CAUSE (Mike Harrington * Joel Rosario – 1.43 x Giant’s Causeway)
His trainer made no bones about the Santa Anita Derby (G1) being just a “steppingstone†to the Kentucky Derby (G1), so his getting beat by I’ll Have Another could be chalked up to just a fitness run for the big dance whilst not overdoing it. He has a ton of talent and is an imposing physical specimen. He ran very well in the best “key race†of the last 112 years, the 2011 Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), even after missing a few days of training due to being kicked by a pony. He should be set for a huge performance on Derby day.
DADDY NOSE BEST (Steve Asmussen * Garrett Gomez – 2.43 x Scat Daddy)
Back-to-back victories in the El Camino Real Derby (G3) and Sunland Derby (G3) point him out as a Kentucky Derby (G1) possibility. Add a sharp trainer and a talented jockey and you have a recipe for success. Don’t know what he beat in those two under-the-radar Derby preps, but he has a nice style, improving speed figures and the pedigree to get the mile and a quarter.
WENT THE DAY WELL (H. Graham Motion * John Velazquez 1.91 Proud Citizen)
This green horn is just learning the game and now he will be thrown into the deep end of pool. Between his fabulous trainer and his successful owners he must be considered a major contender. Showed ability in the Vinery Racing Spiral (G3) at Turfway Park but needs to run straight and true to be effective in the Derby.
BODEMEISTER (Bob Baffert * Mike Smith – 3.00 x Empire Maker)
His Arkansas Derby (G1) victory was breathtaking. A romp on a speed favoring racetrack over Secret Circle who was at the very end of his distance capability and Sabrecat who was making only his second start of the year was not a shocker, but it was stylish and fast. He runs in Kentucky with the dreaded, “No horse unraced at two has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882,†jinx. That’s a 130-year stat which should not be taken lightly. Does anybody want to bet that the Chicago Cubs will win the World Series by 2038?
DADDY LONG LEGS (Aiden O’Brien * Colm O’Donoghue 3.00 Scat Daddy)
A visually impressive winner of the UAE Derby (G1) versus a mixture of Southern Hemisphere four-year-olds and those of his own age group. It seems like a good sign that his connections have opted to leave stablemate and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Wrote home and let this guy be the Coolmore colorbearer. Dirt is the main question, but his trainer has been pointing towards this race and preparing him accordingly.
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (Doug O’Neill * Mario Gutierrez 2.11 Flower Alley)
Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner altered schedule when he unexpectedly won the Robert B. Lewis (G2), his first start of 2012, in excellent fashion. His connections opted to pass the San Felipe (G2) and run the Santa Anita Derby (G1) off a string of long works. The new plan worked with flying colors and now he has a nifty four-week break until his Kentucky Derby (G1) run.
TAKE CHARGE INDY (Patrick Byrne * Calvin Borel 3.00 A.P. Indy)
Seemed lucky to win the Florida Derby (G1) after jockey Julien Leparoux rode Union Rags like he was the little old lady from Pasadena. The scratch at Tampa and the lack of works for two weeks has me questioning how robust he is. Looking forward to seeing him train. We’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.
SABERCAT (Steve Asmussen * Corey Nakatani 2.73 Bluegrass Cat)
His Rebel (G2) run was reportedly just a workout for bigger and better down the line. That was followed up with a solid performance in the Arkansas Derby (G1) with the expectation that the Delta Jackpot (G3) winner would be at his peak for the third race off the layoff. It seems like this very conventional plan is working out well, so a move forward on Derby day can be expected.
