Stephen Foster (G1) Evening Full Card Analysis
June 15th, 2012By Jude T. Feld Follow @racehorsereport
Champion Royal Delta returns to the scene of her biggest victory on Saturday night at Churchill Downs
Breeders’ Cup Photo
1st Race) CAT PAWS is a New York-bred that shows up in Kentucky and drops to the lowest level of his career. The whole process seems rather odd but he has rebounded from poor efforts in the past and might just be too good for this group. KINGPOST woke up when dropped to this level last time out. He has a decent shot for underrated trainer Darrin Miller. CONDURRE does his best running at Churchill Downs and is right back in where he belongs.
2nd Race) DANCIN’ LIL has improved in every start of her three-race career. She broke her maiden easily, earning the best last race Beyer in the field and seems spotted for another top effort. PYSCHO CHICK likes to run second and might do so again. EMMY RULES won at first-asking and might be good enough to threaten these if she moves forward off her debut.
3rd Race) On the Triple Crown trail since his Iroquois (G3) victory over the track at two, ASTROLOGY managed a solid third behind Shackleford and Animal Kingdom in the 2011 Preakness (G1). The son of A.P. Indy went off form after that and was eventually given the rest of the year off by trainer Steven Asmussen. He returned to the racing wars at Oaklawn Park with a nifty allowance score and has trained well coming into this race. IT HAPPENED AGAIN won the Razorback (G3) in 2011 but it didn’t happen again in 2012. He did manage to win an allowance race and finish third in a listed stakes at Prairie Meadows since then. He looks like the major challenger. ACHAEMENES is very well bred and seems to be on the improve. He’ll be a very square price too.
4th Race) PUDDY TAP has never run on the turf, which makes her “best of the morning†workout on the Churchill sod on June 7 all the more eye-catching. The daughter of Tapit has always had a touch of class and the surface switch may be just what she needs to step into a new dimension. BREAKING PROMISES usually gives her best and looks solid in this eclectic group. QUICK PRAISE drew a horrid post. She is bred for turf and might be good enough to win if hot-riding Rosie Napravnik can work out a decent trip.
5th Race) MACHO MACHO ran very well in his first race for trainer Steve Asmussen. He has never been two turns, but he has the relaxed style that should serve him well in this speed-laden field. Jockey Corey Nakatani jumps ship to ride stablemate MASTER RICK but Julien Leparoux is a very able substitute. STEALCASE has always been highly regarded but has yet to live up to his hype. He broke through with a big allowance victory last time out and might finally be coming around. RIGHT TO VOTE ran a bang-up second to the talented Mark Valeski in the Peter Pan (G2). It would not be a surprise to see him take the Matt Winn (G3).
6th Race) There is lots to like about CENTRE COURT. She won big last time out, at today’s testing distance, over the Churchill Downs turf course. The daughter of top turf sire Smart Strike earned a big speed figure in that race and has trained very well since. FUNNY PROPOSITION has a nice pedigree and an improving record. She makes her turf debut Saturday night and if the grass moves her up, watch out! COUP won the Hilltop Stakes at Pimlico on Preakness weekend. The daughter of hot sire Empire Maker has a ton of talent and cannot be ignored. LEFT A MESSAGE has run great in all three of her starts. Slight improvement would put her in the mix.
7th Race) Champion ROYAL DELTA returns to the races in the United States after an ill-advised trip to Dubai. She has been training well for her comeback at Belmont Park. We know she likes Churchill Downs and can handle the lights, so the Fleur de Lis (G2) seems her’s for the taking. ST. JOHN’S RIVER looks like the only real threat to the top choice. She gets five pounds from the champ under the handicap conditions and that can’t hurt. Her second-place finish in the La Troienne (G2) on Oaks day was excellent, so she should be tighter today and tougher to beat.
8th Race) Many people think WISE DAN could be the Horse of the Year in 2012. His 10-length plus score in the Ben Ali (G3) was visually impressive and he earned a massive 117 Beyer speed figure while running it. He has a string of sparkling workouts at Keeneland since that race and is the deserving favorite. ALTERNATION was very game winning the Pimlico Special (G3) in the final strides. He is a handsome colt that is finally living up to the promise he showed in his three-year-old season. The son of Distorted Humor is the one WISE DAN really needs to fear. FORT LARNED has developed nicely for trainer Ian Wilkes. He is not as accomplished as the top two but winning a race like the Stephen Foster (G1) over a field like this would definitely increase his standing.
9th Race) MR. PRODUCER has developed nicely for trainer H. Graham Motion, who adds blinkers to the equipment today in search of further improvement. LOCKOUT ran a bang-up second in his last start, earning the top speed figure in the field. He is the horse to beat. DRILL SARGEANT ran well in his debut at Oaklawn Park and off his solid pedigree might be good enough to threaten these. SMART FARDA is a bit of a plodder but the blinkers on might help. He should be used in all vertical bets.
10th Race) On an improving pattern, SHOOTING STAR broke her maiden last time out. Trainer Kenny McPeek runs her back in a realistic spot and could win another with the daughter of Unbridled’s Song. CHINCHILLA LADY is usually in the hunt but might prefer a longer race. It is a pretty weak field.
11th Race) QUITE READY is bred for the turf. He has the most speed in the race and should clear from his outside post. GRAND AVENUE looked good in his debut. A repeat of that effort puts him right there at the wire. VOUCHER ran his best race on the turf. He will be flying in the stretch.
