Weekend Stakes Analysis
February 22nd, 2013By Jude T. Feld
Two major Kentucky Derby (G1) preps dominate the thoughts of horseplayers throughout the United States on Saturday afternoon as renewals of the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Risen Star (G2) will be contested. Both Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds have assembled excellent supporting stakes for their weekend cards.
The weather in South Florida is forecast to be spectacular with temperatures in the eighties. Heavy rain on Friday in New Orleans has put turf racing in question and at this writing, the best guess for the main track is that it will be off in some regard. The analysis below reflects those conditions.
Best of luck!
GULFSTREAM PARK
GP 9th Race – The Davona Dale (G2)
DREAMING OF JULIA is the lone Triple Crown nominee and the only Grade 1 winner in this short field. Her trainer, Todd Pletcher, excels with horses coming off layoffs and she has been training nicely for her 2013 debut. LIVE LIVELY has shown tons of ability in her three-race career and seems the biggest threat to the top choice. Trainer Mark Hennig stretches her out today but the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro should be able to handle the added real estate. PRIVATE ENSIGN is improving with racing. The A.P. Indy filly could surprise these with a top effort. Her “best of the morning†workout Monday at Palm Meadows indicates she is ready to roll.
GP 10th Race – The Canadian Turf (G3)
HOWE GREAT has been a paragon of consistency throughout his career. He has had a well-deserved rest after an uncharacteristic off-the-board finish in the Jamaica (G1) last October. We know trainer H. Graham Motion sends his returnees fit and ready in their comebacks and two bullet works leading up to this race add to the confidence. The son of Hat Trick should get a great trip right behind the plethora of early speed lined up here. DATA LINK must shoulder the top weight, but he won the Monmouth (G2) under the same 123-pound impost he is asked to carry Saturday. He will be flying at the finish and seems like the horse to beat in this spot. CASH RULES is better known as a dirt runner. He did finish third in his lone turf race right here at Gulfstream Park. His dirt numbers are competitive with the top two and he could upset if the sod is to his liking.
GP 11th Race – The Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2)
VIOLENCE has won three races in three starts at three different tracks. He is also the only Grade 1 winner in the field. His speed figures have improved with every start and he has trained forwardly at Palm Meadows for his three-year-old debut. If he wins this race, the son of Medaglia d’Oro, from the Todd Pletcher stable, will catapult to national prominence and become many fans’ Kentucky Derby (G1) horse. MAJESTIC HUSSAR was impressive beating the talented Palace Malice in an allowance at Gulfstream last month. His trainer, Eddie Kenneally, is adept at stretching his charges out and this son of Majestic Warrior has been training at Palm Meadows like his tail is on fire. If the jocks fall asleep, he could be long gone. HE’S HAD ENOUGH has talent, but he is his own worst enemy. Bad starts and troubled trips seem to plague the Doug O’Neill trainee. If he learns to shed his bonehead antics the son of super-sire Tapit could be a big player on the Triple Crown trail.
FAIR GROUNDS
FG 7th Race – The Fair Grounds Handicap (G3)
TWO MONTHS RENT has one of the top turf figures in this race. He seems to relish some give in the ground and gets six pounds from his major foe. Trainer Jimmy Toner is very good at bringing horses to the winners’ circle off of vacations and it is significant that leading rider Rosie Napravnik takes the call. OPTIMIZER might be one of the best turf horses in the country. He must carry top weight in this handicap. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee is another who can handle a soft turf and his recent races give him a slight condition edge over many of his competitors. Brazilian invader QUALITY CONTROL brings a solid record stateside. Like most horses from his nation, the worse the conditions are the more they excel. His worktab is rather light, but we’ll assume top trainer Tom Amoss wouldn’t run him unless he was ready.
FG 8th Race – The Mineshaft Handicap (G3)
MARK VALESKI is a talented colt. He certainly ranked among the best three-year-olds of 2012 and showed a nice return to form in his comebacker at Fair Grounds January 19. He has never raced on an off track, but did post a bullet drill in the slop here on January 6. The Larry Jones star should be a tough customer. INFRATTINI beat the top choice last time out. He has run three seconds in three starts on off tracks and the Paul McGee-trained runner might be in for another one in this spot. GOLDEN TICKET relishes the mud and his 2013 comebacker was excellent. Trainer Kenny McPeek likes to “ship and win,†so it is not surprising to see the Travers (G1) winner in New Orleans. COOL STREET is improving and dangerous for former “Nawlins†policeman Bernie Flint. He should not be left off your horizontal tickets despite a lack of mud form.
FG 9th Race – The Rachel Alexandra (G3)
UNLIMITED BUDGET is something we’d all like to have. The daughter of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Street Sense won the Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct in her second start after blitzing a maiden field, on a track labeled, “Good,†in her debut. The Todd Pletcher trainee beat next-out winners in both of her races and that speaks volumes for her ability. DANCINGINTHECIRCLE is a talented filly by underrated sire Divine Park. She won a hundred-grander at Delta Downs by open lengths in her last start and could make it a big day for Team Jones. FINDING MORE may have needed the Silverbulletday Stakes, her first around two turns. She should be tighter today for up and coming trainer Kellyn Gorder.
FG 10th – The Risen Star (G2)
PROUD STRIKE was a $240,000 purchase from the estate of the great Thoroughbred breeder, Ned Evans at the 2011Keeneland September Yearling sale. He has improved with each of his three starts for trainer Steve Asmussen, who holds him in high regard. With Pleasant Colony on his bottom side, the son of Smart Strike should handle the gumbo and having red-hot Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens fly in to ride him means all systems are go. PALACE MALICE ran well in the slop in his first race of the year. That seven-furlong run against the talented Majestic Hussar should have the Todd Pletcher-trained son of Curlin primed and ready for a big run. He has worked brilliantly since, so it would not be shocking to see him posing for pictures. NORMANDY INVASION comes out of the highly rated Remsen (G2). He is a lumbering runner with a substantial late kick that is ideally suited to the long Fair Grounds stretch. If he handles the footing he could crush the field. CODE WEST is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. The son of Lemon Drop Kid was flattered when stablemate Super Ninety Nine, who he ran second to last time out, ran away from the Southwest (G3) field on President’s Day at Oaklawn Park. He has never been out-of-the-money and has never raced on anything but fast tracks. He is another from the Ned Evans dispersal sale and could certainly be part of the mix.
