Jude Feld’s Saturday Breeders’ Cup Analysis
November 2nd, 2013
Race 4 – BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES (G1)
#7 UNTAPABLE followed up a big maiden win with a game victory in the Pocahontas (G2) at Churchill Downs. A tad rank that day, trainer Steve Asmussen has had plenty of time to work out the kinks. The daughter of Tapit has been training well at Santa Anita and a top effort is in the offing. #1 ARTEMIS AGROTERA, another undefeated filly, won the Frizette (G1) in a very professional manner. She has continued to work well towards this race and could certainly be a major force here. #9 SWEET REASON will be finishing fastest and could be a big winner if a pace duel develops. It would be a nice homecoming for jockey Alex Solis. #8 SCANDALOUS ACT has been crushing her Florida foes and seems good enough to tackle the big time. #10 SHE’S A TIGER has dangerous early speed and Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens to ration it out. She may have needed her first route try and would not surprise many if she was posing for pictures.
Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1)
#1 DANK was ultra-impressive capturing the Beverly D. (G1) in August. She does her best running fresh and is a major force to contend with in this event. Barbados-born trainer Sir Michael Stoute is no stranger to the world stage and he will have the daughter of Dansili ready to roll. #7 LAUGHING has been running lights out all year long. There isn’t a lot of speed entered here, so she may have it her own way up front for a while. Leave her out at your peril. #8 EMOLLIENT may be best on the turf. She is another quality Juddmonte filly who is capable of overwhelming performances at times. #6 MARKETING MIX seems to be a little off form lately. I thought maybe an addition of blinkers was in order for her, as she seemed to lose focus in her last start, but she will race without them. She is very good on her best day, likes Santa Anita and is tough to leave off your ticket.
Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1)
The last four winners of the Thoroughbred Club of America (G2) at Keeneland have come back to win this race. #9 JUDY THE BEAUTY has every right to continue the trend here. She is a very talented sprinter who has encountered a bit of tough luck this year. The Wesley Ward-trained filly is on the upswing and has Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez up to call the shots. Defending champion #11 GROUPIE DOLL was taken out of her game when forced to press the pace in the TCA against the top choice. Her trainer, Buff Bradley, likes the way his homebred is training and is confident that last year’s winner can turn the tables this afternoon. #2 BOOK REVIEW will be flying late. She is capable of huge efforts and a win here would not be a shocker. #5 TEDDY’S PROMISE loves Santa Anita. The daughter of Salt Lake has won five races in nine starts in Arcadia for trainer Ron Ellis. Her prep in the L.A. Woman Stakes was solid and she certainly has earned a spot on your exotic tickets.
Race 7 – Geico Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1)
#12 MIZDIRECTION is the defending champ and she has never lost a race on the Anita Chiquita turf course. She has been working like her tail is on fire for trainer Mike Puype. The daughter of Mizzen Mast drew very well and should keep her Santa Anita winning streak alive with a decent trip. #14 UNBRIDLED’S NOTE served notice he is ready for this race with a super comebacker in the Eddie D. (G3). He’s not the luckiest horse in training but he might be one of the hardest trying colts around. He is reliable for a big try from the optimal outside post. #5 CARACORTADO is named for the big scar on his face, but it’s his tootsies that have caused him problems. He looked sharp in his return to the races last month and has worked well in the interim. He likes the hill and could surprise for underrated trainer Mike Machowsky. #9 CAPO BASTONE ran like a freak in the King’s Bishop (G1) at Saratoga, one of the United States’ toughest races to win. His style and pedigree suggest he’ll like the downhill turf course and he has the benefit of being trained by Todd Pletcher.
Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)
#12 DIAMOND BACHELOR is a son of War Front with tremendous talent. He has been carefully prepared for this event by trainer Patrick Biancone and although he has never run on the dirt, his workouts have been absolutely sparkling on the main track. He might be a very important colt moving into the Derby season. #4 NEW YEAR’S DAY, a $425,000 Keeneland yearling has shown solid ability in his two lifetime starts. The son of Street Cry has been working lights out for this race and will be ridden by stable go-to-guy Martin Garcia. #8 CONQUEST TITAN is highly regarded by his stable. He had a horrid trip in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland and could rebound with a little luck here. At 30-1 on the line, he is a great exotics tool. #11 MEDAL COUNT has talent, but is another who could have found a better way to go at Keeneland. The son of Dynaformer has been working well since his last start and is 20-1 on the line, making him a worthwhile horse in the tricks.
Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1)
#7 THE FUGUE should have won the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) last year. This year, she’ll face the boys at a mile and a half and try to head home with an ecorche. Her trainer, John Gosden, is among the best in the world and he has had this race in mind for the daughter of Dansili for some time. #4 LITTLE MIKE finally found some of his better form in the Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont Park after a working vacation to Dubai earlier this year knocked him out. He won this race last year and is always dangerous with his great tactical speed. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith got to know the Dale Romans trainee last time out and that could be important moving forward. #10 BIG BLUE KITTEN has been a beast all year long, never finishing out of the money, while winning four of seven starts, including two Grade 1 races. He has been training well for this event but will need jockey Joe Bravo to navigate a trip from an outside post. #8 POINT OF ENTRY is one of the top turf horses in North America on his best day. It seems to me that he’s been rushed to make this race – not the usual style of his stable. His ability is great but his preparation is abbreviated. Tough decision whether to back or pass.
Race 10 – Xpressbet Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1)
#9 SECRET CIRCLE is very fast and ultra-consistent. He served notice that he was back to his “A†game with a rather facile allowance victory on October 14 at Santa Anita. With two bullet works since then, the Bob Baffert trainee seems ready to improve off that comebacker, which already earned one of the top last race Brisnet speed figures in the field. #1 JUSTIN PHILLIP has run very well this year. He may have been the top pick if he hadn’t drawn the rail, which makes the task of winning this race even more difficult than normal. The post can’t take his ability away however and jockey John Velazquez will have a master plan as to how he can win from the inside. Trainer Ron Moquett was quoted earlier this year saying #3 GENTLEMEN’S BET was, “the best sprinter in the country.†He’ll have his day in court here and may come out smelling like a rose. #6 BAHAMIAN SQUALL is trained by David Fawkes, who has a BC Sprint (G1) win on his resume with Big Drama. The son of Gone West has a versatile running style and could be the beneficiary if a pace duel develops early.
Race 11 – Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1)
Trainer Charlie LoPresti oddly chose to run #8 WISE DAN when the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) was taken off the turf and run at a mile and a sixteenth on the poly track, downgrading it to a Grade 2. His performance was very un-Danlike. Back at his preferred distance, on a surface he has been successful on in the past, I think we’ll see the gelding we know and love. #5 OLYMPIC GLORY just whipped up on the field in the Queen Elizabeth II (G1) at Ascot. He has won on quick turnarounds in the past and could be posing for pictures if the favorite stubs his toe. #10 ZA APPROVAL loves firm ground and will certainly get that in Arcadia. He’s had a great year and shows up to Breeders’ Cup in top form. #1 NO JET LAG has been a completely different animal since shipping to the states and using Lasix. Even though he is a three-year-old, he owns improving form and poses a big danger off his recent workouts.
Race 12 – Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1)
I have loved #6 MUCHO MACHO MAN since the first day I laid eyes on him at Gulfstream Park as a three-year-old. He was a skinny teenager then, but has grown into a very handsome man. Trainer Kathy Ritvo has done a masterful job with him and his Awesome Again (G1) victory underscores that. Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens fits the son of Macho Uno like a glove and they should get a great trip right behind the speed. #5 DECLARATION OF WAR is a multiple Grade 1 winner. He has never won on the dirt, but he did win a Group 3 event on an all-weather surface at Dundalk last year. He’s a world-class colt and need only handle Santa Anita’s main track to be a major player. #9 GAME ON DUDE is in the best form of his life. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has chosen his path to the Breeders’ Cup wisely and been rewarded with five victories in five starts. There is only one left on the list and he is 8/5 on the morning line.
