Jude Feld’s Graded Stakes Analysis for Meydan, Gulfstream & Fair Grounds – Saturday, March 29, 2014
March 27th, 2014
DUBAI
Meydan Race 2 – The Godolphin Mile (G2)
SHURUQ won the Burj Nahaar (G3) in solid fashion and could make it two-in-a-row if she repeats that race. FLOTILLA is rounding to form nicely after her fall vacation and should be ready for her best effort of 2014 here. SOFT FALLING RAIN reportedly has Breeders’ Cup aspirations. He no doubt needed his last start and should be much tighter for the experience. The Mike de Kock trainee is a win machine when right.
Meydan Race 3 – The Dubai Gold Cup (G2)
The Aga Khan’s DABADIYAN has been meeting top company while prepping for this two-mile event. He lacks stakes seasoning and has never run this far but he’ll be a square price and could surprise with a good trip. CAVALRYMAN is the defending champion and also deserves respect off his comeback victory in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy. He sports Godolphin blue. Eight-year-old STAR EMPIRE has been running well all through the carnival, but will need his best effort of the year to take home the Gold Cup.
Meydan Race 4 – The UAE Derby (G2)
EMIRATES FLYER has been cleverly prepared for this race by trainer Saeed bin Suroor. The son of Acclamation always gives his best and will have world-class jockey Kieren Fallon to guide him. COOPTADO is a big shot from Argentina who owns a big late kick. He’s run well on turf and dirt so the all-weather shouldn’t pose a problem for him. PAXIMADIA calls Australia home. He no doubt needed his spin around Meydan in the 2000 Guineas (G3) last month, but should move forward with a race under his girth. GIOVANNI BOLDINI showed his talent with a runner-up effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). If cagey trainer Aidan O’Brien has him ready off the bench, there’s no reason he couldn’t give a good showing and then head on to the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Meydan Race 5 – The Al Quoz Sprint (G1)
Most international horseplayers love SHEA SHEA. He runs against the best and wins half the time. He’ll be a short price as usual but tough to pick against. AMBER SKY has the best chance to represent Hong Kong in the Meydan winners’ circle. His rider, Joao Moreira has taken the world by storm and they teamed up to win a Group 1 in Hong Kong last time out. The antique JOY AND FUN had a horrid trip in the Hong Kong Sprint (G1) and could rebound here at a nifty price.
Meydan Race 6 – The Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1)
REYNALDOTHEWIZARD has been running lights out for over a year. He has a nice draw and two prep races to have him sharp for this. COMPLICATE was beaten a length by the top choice in the Mahab Al Shimaal (G3) last time out. The Godolphin runner is certainly a major player. ZEE BROS ran well in his only Tapeta start but flopped on the grass in his latest. He has California speed and might be dangerous.
Meydan Race 7 – The Dubai Duty Free (G1)
Six-for-six and resounding winner of the Jebel Hatta (G1), VERCINGETORIX is the horse to beat. TRADE STORM boasts solid connections and should be set for his best effort in his fourth start of the year. THE FUGUE and DANK are both world-class mares but enter this race with a few question marks. It would not be shocking to see either one or both run corkers however. ANAEROBIO is a sneaky-good local who might be an excellent exotic tool.
Meydan Race 8 – The Dubai Sheema Classic (G1)
CIRRUS DES AIGLES doesn’t have a great post but he has an excellent record. He’s among the world’s best turf runners and doesn’t face a field of champions here. There is a dearth of American participants on this year’s World Cup card, but TWILIGHT ECLIPSE will shoulder the “Stars and Stripes†here. He seems to have turned the corner recently and might get first run with this group. MAGICIAN looked sharp in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) beating The Fugue out of the Ecorche. He’ll make his presence felt. MOUNT ATHOS prepped in the Dubai City of Gold (G2), coming up a neck short. He’ll be a big number on the board but certainly has a chance at taking home the bulk of the $5,000,000 purse. DOMINANT has pleased his trainer no end getting ready for this race. He’s another one that may be overlooked in the wagering.
Meydan Race 9 – The Dubai World Cup (G1)
SANSHAAWES has lots of good things going for him topped by trainer Mike de Kock. He’s a talented gelding who has been in great Carnival form. Jockey Christophe Soumillon only enhances his chances. SURFER is coming up to this race in excellent fashion. He should be in the mix at the wire. BELSHAZZAR is the Japanese hope. He prepped in Tokyo for this event and should be set for a top try. Jockey Christophe Lemaire rides him best. It would be great if RON THE GREEK won this race. He is one of the best-looking horses I have ever seen. His outside draw virtually eliminates any chance he had, but I wish him the best.
FLORIDA
Gulfstream Race 4 – The Rampart (G3)
Coming off a big win while earning the best last race Brisnet speed figure, I can see only one filly in this short field and that is DEVIL’S CAVE. She will be a short price, so it might be best to invest in a cocktail instead of heading to the wickets.
Gulfstream Race 6 – The Gulfstream Oaks (G2)
Well-bred, undefeated and trained to the minute, IN TUNE seems like the most likely winner. Only HOUSE RULES has a race that would remotely threaten her. PENWITH looks like the best of the rest.
Gulfstream Race 10 – The Orchid (G3)
In the old days, when this race was a “stand alone†stakes, they printed the program with orchid-colored ink. That was pretty cool. AIGUE MARINE ran very well in her only start this year and seems set for a breakout performance. The daughter of sensational sire Galileo has Christophe Clement to tighten the girth and Joel Rosario in the saddle. It all adds up to victory. INIMITABLE ROMANEE seems to have figured this racing game out. Graham Motion trainees are always tough in turf marathons, so don’t be surprised if she is standing the winners’ circle. VIVA RAFAELA has a touch of class and some tactical speed. She should get a piece of the pie.
Gulfstream Race 11 – The Appleton (G3)
SALTO has been knocking on the door and might finally hit the charmed circle today. He has solid numbers and can finish which might be helpful in this speed-laden field. FREDERICKSBURG has the best Brisnet late pace numbers in the field. The son of Speightstown could surprise at a nice price.
Gulfstream Race 12 – The Skip Away (G3)
I have always liked MICROMANAGE. He ran sneaky-good in his 2014 debut at Fair Grounds and should be much fitter today. He gets blinkers for the first time too. Hopefully they will help him focus in the early stages of the race and keep him from getting too far out of it. NEVADA KID has dangerous early speed and comes off back-to-back wire-to-wire scores. CSABA likes Gulfstream and can run some on an off track if the threatened rain hits.
Gulfstream Race 13 – The Pan American (G2)
AMIRA’S PRINCE is one of the best turf marathoners in the country. He is cross-entered at Fair Grounds, but my preference would be to run him in this spot. He ran well off his long vacation and the conditions are ideal for him at his favorite track. SLUMBER had a very troubled trip in the MacDiarmida (G2). Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez sticks with the Juddmonte color-bearer and gives Hall of Fame trainer Billy Mott a great chance at a stakes exacta.
Gulfstream Race 14 – The Florida Derby (G1)
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is no stranger to Kentucky Derby hopefuls and he thinks CAIRO PRINCE is the best chance he’s had. He’s got the numbers, the class and is within a nose of being undefeated. CONSTITUTION is a stone runner. He’s been impressive in both his starts and need only move forward a little bit to be on par with the favorite. GENERAL A ROD has improved in every start. He has a question of distance ability but that may get answered today. The Dynaformer on the bottom side might be just enough to get him to go a mile and an eighth.
LOUISIANA
Fair Grounds Race 7 – The Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)
UNTAPABLE looked like the race’s namesake, winning the Rachel Alexandra (G3) last time out in New Orleans. If she runs back to that one, the rest of the fillies are running for second. FIFTYSHADESOFGOLD has some grit, but she tries two-turns for the first time. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith takes the call on the Texas-bred filly and that gives her some credibility. UNBRIDLED FOREVER is running well for trainer Dallas Stewart, who has always had a way with the fillies. She is not without a shot at the winners’ circle.
Fair Grounds Race 10 – The New Orleans Handicap (G2)
NORMANDY INVASION was super-impressive in his 2014 debut in a Gulfstream allowance race. Trainer Chad Brown has had this spot on the radar for some time and this track really suits his running style. PALACE MALICE will be the heavy favorite and I think he will bounce to the moon. He was all-out to win the Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2) and comes back in three weeks. He may win because he’s so good, but if he does, it will be without me.
Fair Grounds Race 11 – The Louisiana Derby (G2)
INTENSE HOLIDAY is the top colt in the myfantasystable.com rankings I do every week for racing’s best fantasy game. I loved him in the Risen Star (G2) and told everybody so on Horse Racing Radio Network’s call-in show the Thursday before the race. He seems to be the best horse once again. ALBANO was beaten a dirt nose by the top choice last time and trainer Larry Jones has vowed revenge. This race is longer, so it wouldn’t seem to benefit the son of speedy miler Istan. VICAR’S IN TROUBLE might have needed his last start and seems like the most likely to improve.
