Jude Feld’s Graded Stakes Analysis for Saturday, April 5, 2014
April 4th, 2014
AQUEDUCT RACE 8 – THE BAY SHORE (G3)
In a race laden with early speedsters, KOBE’S BACK is the closer to fear. If you cross off his two distance debacles, his form is pretty stellar. The John Sadler trainee has the California speed so effective shipping east and he drew the cozy outside box. Jockey Corey Nakatani should be able to mow them down late if any kind of pace duel develops. FAVORITE TALE has improved leaps and bounds in his perfect three-race career. He gets the acid test for class here, but if speed figures mean anything, he should be right there on the wire. FINANCIAL MOGUL seems best around one turn and blew out nicely over the track for this race. He’ll be a square price too.
AQUEDUCT RACE 9 – THE GAZELLE (G2)
MY MISS SOPHIA stretches out even further after breaking her maiden by 11 lengths last time out. The daughter of Unbridled’s Song should control the pace here and could be quite tough to down if she can handle the mile and one-eighth. GOT LUCKY has really been anything but. She has one win and three seconds in four starts. With the paucity of pace in this event, the Todd Pletcher-trained daughter of A.P. Indy may have to be a bridesmaid once again. SWEET REASON is a talented filly trained by Leah Gyarmati. She was victorious in her 2014 debut after a distinguished two-year-old season and would not be a surprise victress.
AQUEDUCT RACE 10 – THE WOOD MEMORIAL (G1)
No competitor has ever gotten close to SOCIAL INCLUSION in his two lifetime starts. Some people, including venerated trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, have called him a freak. If that is the case, he should be posing for pictures after this race. It is not an easy field however, and there are plenty of speed horses to try him on the front end. If a speed duel develops, KID CRUZ could be along in time. He has really gotten good and Hall of Fame trainer Billy Mott must be a little nervous about losing him in a claiming race to New York’s 2013 trainer of the year, Linda Rice. UNCLE SIGH is a nice colt and will be part of the pace brigade although he can rate a bit too. His nemesis SAMRAAT is entered as well and he has certainly proven his gameness winning all five of his races.
AQUEDUCT RACE 11 – THE CARTER HANDICAP (G1)
SAHARA SKY owns an excellent record going seven furlongs and is one of the two Grade 1 winners in the field. Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has been en fuego this year and he saddles the real deal here. STRAPPING GROOM won the Tom Fool (G3) in his 2014 debut. He has two wins at this specialty distance, including the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga. He’ll get a great trip right behind the early pace. CENTRAL BANKER is one of my favorites. He always tried hard and is just a half-length away from being a Grade 1 winner.
CALDER RACE 7 – CALDER DERBY (L)
I bet on RING WEEKEND in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and was very pleased with his performance, but he didn’t give me the impression he was a Derby horse. He’s good, but not great, so I am going to try and beat him this time with CLEBURNE. The son of Dixie Union makes his three-year-old debut in a stakes, but his perfect record – one win on turf and one on dirt – impresses me, as does his defeat of Tapiture in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs.
KEENELAND RACE 9 – THE CENTRAL BANK ASHLAND (G1)
TESTA ROSSI is a beast. She is one of those gritty fillies that nobody wants to run against. She’s hard to pick against here unless you think the daughter of Dr Fong will flop on the synthetic track. ROSALIND ran really well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) against two monster gals. Trainer Kenny McPeek went to the well once too often, running her back in the Starlet (G1), but she wasn’t disgraced. Her prep versus Gulfstream Oaks (G2) winner In Tune looks good on paper and certainly puts her in the hunt. CANDY KITTY should like the polytrack. She’s a trier and calls the Todd Pletcher barn home. Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado enhances her chances.
OAKLAWN PARK RACE 9 – THE FANTASY (G3)
PLEASE EXPLAIN lacks early speed, but the daughter of Curlin sure can fly home. Her last five races have been at five different tracks and she’s run well in all of them. Apprentice Drayden Van Dyke gets the call for sizzling trainer Tom Proctor and with lots of speed signed on here, she looks very formidable. SUGAR SHOCK has tactical speed and may have even needed a two-turn race in the Honeybee (G3), which she won anyway. She’s come back to work well and certainly has the credentials to win once again. MUFAJAAH has improved in every start for underrated trainer Danny Peitz. The daughter of Tapit seems to have a touch of class and she too will be moving well late.
SANTA ANITA RACE 5 – THE SANTA ANITA OAKS (G1)
The late, great trainer Eddie Gregson said, “There are only two kinds of trainers. Those that have been fired and those that are gonna get fired.†RIA ANTONIA’s braintrust decided to give Jeremiah Englehart the boot for Bob Baffert. At least they hired a Hall of Famer. The problem is she’s a block better than anybody in this field and if she wins this race, it will just reinforce the owners’ foolishness. C’est la vie.
SANTA ANITA RACE 7 – THE PROVIDENCIA (G3)
There is only one entrant with speed in this event – ONE MORE. She should be on a long lonesome lead and seems to have this group at her mercy. Speaking of dead guys, my old handicapping buddy, Joshua Shelley, loved lone front runners. He would have been all over this Doug O’Neill trainee.
SANTA ANITA RACE 8 – THE SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1)
Trainer Art Sherman and jockey Victor Espinoza have been singing the praises of CALIFORNIA CHROME since he won the San Felipe early last month. He’s been training like a bomb at Los Alamitos for this race and his Brisnet numbers are the best in the field. HOPPERTUNITY looked good winning the Rebel (G2). It’s tough to count Bob Baffert out when it comes to Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races. CANDY BOY has waited a long time to run here. As we saw last Saturday with Cairo Prince, time between races isn’t always a good thing. Proceed with caution. SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS has been working well since the San Felipe (G2). He should improve, but he’s going to need to if he’s going to win this.
