JUDE FELD’S KEENELAND & OAKLAWN GRADED STAKES ANALYSIS FOR SATURDAY, APRIL 12, 2014
April 10th, 2014
Bobby’s Kitten breezing over the polytrack on April 5 at Keeneland as he prepared for Saturday’s Toyota Blue Grass (G1)Keeneland Photo
Great cards at both racing emporiums Saturday. This is pretty much make or break if you want in the gate at Churchill Downs in three weeks. It’s been the wildest Kentucky Derby (G1) season in years and the Triple Crown should be a blast.
KEENELAND RACE 7 – THE COMMONWEALTH (G3)
LAUGH TRACK drew the rail, but he adores synthetic surfaces, hails from the red-hot Mark Casse stable and posted a very nice :59 4/5 workout over the track to indicated his readiness. Jockey Jose Lezcano will place him properly for a big stretch run. UNDRAFTED has a lot of talent and is probably best suited to sprints. His February 20th comebacker at Gulfstream was solid and he has a string of excellent breezes at Keeneland for this race. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez enhances his chances. DIMENSION is a versatile gelding who excels at seven furlongs. He’s shown a fondness for all-weather tracks and should be solid price if you are looking for a boost in exotic prices.
KEENELAND RACE 8 – THE SHAKERTOWN (G3)
Defending champion HAVELOCK has certainly provided some thrills at Keeneland. His victory in the Woodford (G3) last fall under Garrett Gomez was one of the most impressive performances by horse and rider I have ever seen. His trainer Darrin Miller always has him cranked up for these turf sprints and there is no way I’m picking against him. GANTRY is another favorite of mine. He ran a corker over the Fair Grounds turf last time out. He gets the cozy outside post, so regular rider Richard Eramia should be able to keep him in the clear. HOGY likes one-turn grass races. He had a horrid trip in last year’s edition of this event and could get some revenge if jockey Shaun Bridgmohan can map out a better plan than his counterpart in 2013.
KEENELAND RACE 9 – THE MADISON (G1)
JUDY THE BEAUTY is the best female sprinter in the country. She kicked ass and took names in the Las Flores (G3) at Santa Anita last month and with two nice works under her belt over the Keeneland poly the Wesley Ward-trained mare should do it again. She has never lost in three starts in Lexington. APROPOS won back-to-back starts at Oaklawn Park. She’s been working well toward this event. The daughter of First Samurai, from the Al Stall, Jr. barn, won her only start at seven furlongs and she should get a great trip right behind the speed. BETTER LUCKY has done her best running on the turf. She’s coming off a bit of a layoff, but the multiple Grade 1 winner should be flying late under top jockey Javier Castellano if she handles the surface.
KEENELAND RACE 10 – THE JENNY WILEY (G1)
This race may be, “A Tale of Two Kittens.†STEPHANIE’S KITTEN is one of the best turf distaffers in the nation. She has won over $1.6 million and two Grade 1 events. Now in the barn of Chad Brown, who wins 29% of the time with his layoff horses, she will be the deserved favorite. KITTEN’S POINT is the new cat in town. Trainer Graham Motion has developed her nicely over the last year. She should have won the Honey Fox (G2) for fun last time out, but got beat a dirty nose by CENTRE COURT after a dismal trip. FITFUL SKIES wears the Godolphin blue and that means she is a runner. She ran a bang-up race in the E.P. Taylor (G1) at Woodbine in her North American debut, falling just a neck short of the talented Tannery. It would not be a stretch to see trainer Kiaran McLaughlin posing for pictures post race.
KEENELAND RACE 11 – THE TOYOTA BLUE GRASS (G1)
BOBBY’S KITTEN has been on my radar since he broke his maiden at Saratoga on August 24. I think he is the most talented of the 2011 American Thoroughbred crop. This is the day for him to shine and for me to see if I am right. BIG BAZINGA ran last in the Holy Bull (G2) on January 25, but we saw three colts, dismally defeated in that race, come back to win stakes last Saturday, including impressive Wood Memorial (G1) winner Wicked Strong. He likes polytrack and has been training better than ever for this race according to trainer Katerina Vassileva. PABLO DEL MONTE has won both of his starts at Keeneland. Trainer Wesley Ward is a cagey fellow and may have been pointing to this race for some time. The son of top polytrack sire Giant’s Causeway has a string of four good works in Lexington and his prep in the Hutcheson (G3) was better-than-looked. HARRY’S HOLIDAY enters this race on the upswing. He can get the mile and an eighth and jockey Rosie Napravnik got acquainted with him in the Spiral (G3) last time out. He wouldn’t be a shocker.
OAKLAWN PARK RACE 10 – THE OAKLAWN HANDICAP (G2)
Not much value for bettors here as WILL TAKE CHARGE looks very solid and the most likely upsetter, GOLDEN LAD, will take plenty of action as well. REVOLUTIONARY could be the “dark horse.†He never seemed to get a hold of the track in the Donn (G1) at Gulfstream Park. If you can forgive that race, his form is pretty decent.
OAKLAWN PARK RACE 11 – THE ARKANSAS DERBY (G1)
The pace in here is going to be torrid. DANZA has never gone two turns, RIDE ON CURLIN has two sprint wins on his resume and none over six furlongs. I think THUNDERGRAM is a rabbit for CONQUEST TITAN. BAYERN has yet to show that he can rate and STRONG MANDATE is another that has only won sprinting. That leaves TAPITURE, COMMISSIONER and CONQUEST TITAN to pick up the pieces. The latter ran in the Holy Bull (G2), a race that has proven to be “key.†He’s certainly faced the toughest competition and gets the services of “Mr. Derby,†Calvin Borel. TAPITURE is the obvious horse to beat. He owns a solid resume and should run well once again. COMMISSIONER seems to be a bit of a plodder. I would have liked to see a little zip in his training, but maybe trainer Todd Pletcher is prepping him for the Belmont (G1) and just not telling us.
