Jude Feld’s Graded Stakes Analysis for Saturday, April 26, 2014
April 25th, 2014
Jude and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert shooting the breeze about the Triple CrownKurt “The Voice of NASCAR & Keeneland” Becker Photo
Only four Grade 3 events on Saturday’s docket as we head into Derby Week. We start at cocktail hour in Canada and end with a nightcap in Texas.
WOODBINE RACE 8 – THE WHIMSICAL (G3)
GOLDSTRYKE GLORY is a “triple advantage speed figure play.†That means her last three speed figures (I use Brisnet past performances) are superior to all three speed figures earned by the other entrants in their last three starts. It is one of the best angles in racing to pick winners. Her one knock is a lack of recent action, but her trainer, Kelly Callaghan, wins 33% with horses coming off a similar layoff. The only mare in the race with a good recent effort is PURELY HOT. She is certainly worth using in exactas and tris and could take it all if the top choice is a little rusty off the bench.
GOLDEN GATE RACE 7 – THE SAN FRANCISCO MILE (G3)
Most of the horses entered here do their best running on or near the lead. The pace figures to be quick, so let’s try to find a closer. FAST TRACK has had a productive winter in Arizona, winning his last three starts in-a-row. His trainer Molly Pearson knows what it takes to be successful in California and if she sees fit to enter this race, I will go along with her. A nice :59 3/5 breeze at Turf Paradise April 19 shows her charge maintains his enthusiasm. PEPNIC is another who can finish, although he may be better as a presser. He could get first run at the leaders. SUMMER HIT tops the Hollendorfer trio and Russell Baze sticks with him. The Hall of Famers certainly cannot be ignored in what is a pretty salty race.
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 8 – THE DERBY TRIAL (G3)
BIG SUGAR SODA has been rounding to form at Fair Grounds and Oaklawn Park. He stretches out to a mile for the first time, which might be just what he needs to win his second race. He has always trained like a good horse, so a big effort, at a nice price, shouldn’t be shocking. BAYERN is a stone runner with some distance limitations. He should be very tough to beat here but will undoubtedly be a miniscule price. The rail draw doesn’t help him either. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s other entrant, CHITU, will be scratched to run in the Kentucky Derby (G1). SPOT is best around one turn. Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito succumbed to Derby fever and tried him a mile and an eighth in the Florida Derby (G1), but it’s back to reality here. He should love the track and distance.
LONE STAR PARK RACE 8 – THE TEXAS MILE (G3)
BOURBON COURAGE is a pretty nice horse. He’s been competitive with the likes of Shackleford, Graydar, Take Charge Indy and Will Take Charge. Any one of those four would probably be odds-on in this race. Talented trainer Kellyn Gorder should have him ready to fire his best shot in his third start of the year. TAPTOWNE has also kept good company. He probably needed the exercise in the Razorback Handicap (G3) and should be much tighter tonight. TEXAS AIR loves Lone Star Park and was flattered when Frac Daddy came back to win the Ben Ali (G3) at Keeneland last weekend.
