JUDE FELD’S BELMONT (G1) DAY STAKES ANALYSIS

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RACE 2 – EASY GOER

#5 MISCONNECT has developed nicely for trainer Todd Pletcher. He probably wasn’t taxed too much winning his four-horse comebacker and the son of Unbridled’s Song has been training very well since. #7 LEGEND just broke his maiden, but he has unlimited potential. He posted a sparkling blowout on the Belmont training track for this race and his running lines are replete with top sophomores. #1 LIFE IN SHAMBLES has risen from the claiming ranks to being a stakes performer. His Brisnet speed figures have increased in every start and he owns good tactical speed which may help him beat the inside draw. #8 PASS THE COFFEE is another who is a reformed claimer. Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito has the son of War Pass in good form and his late closing style gives him a big shot at being in the trifecta.

RACE 3 – BROOKLYN INVITATIONAL (G2)

The addition of blinkers has made a world of difference to #3 MICROMANAGE. The son of Medaglia d’Oro showed plenty of ability last year, but now he has some focus. His victory in the Skip Away (G3) was excellent and he followed that up with a solid third-place finish in a strangely run Drosselmeyer Stakes. He has the style and pedigree that should suit a marathon perfectly. #5 EVER RIDER has proven form at a mile and a half. He beat the top pick last time out but a 10-pound weight shift turns the tide against him. #1 ERIUGENA has won his last two starts by open lengths. He seems to be on the upswing for the powerful Ramsey stable and his European pedigree gives him a license to enjoy this distance.

RACE 4 – JAIPUR INVITATIONAL (G3)

By Disco Rico out of a Not For Love mare, it is hard to believe that #3 MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC has never tried the turf. His two recent works over the course have been sparkling and his versatile style should be an asset here as well. #8 BEN’S CAT is a truly amazing gelding. He’s won 26 races in 39 starts and banked almost $2 million. He hits the big time today and nobody in the grandstand would be shocked to see him posing for pictures after this race. #10 MARCHMAN is in top-class form. His last two races, both Grade 3 events, have been awesome and his “best of the morning” blowout at Churchill Downs shows he maintains his sharpness coming into this one. #6 UNDRAFTED ran second to #10 MARCHMAN in his last start and gets another furlong to work with here. He tries hard every time and is impossible to leave off your tickets.

RACE 5 – WOODY STEPHENS (G2)

#11 SOCIAL INCLUSION is an unbelievably fast colt. It is a tribute to his class that he has been able to be in the money in the Wood Memorial (G1) and the Preakness (G1). His connections have wised up and made the good decision to run him in this race instead of the Belmont (G1). His :33 2/5 breeze on May 31 over this strip points him out. #5 COUP DE GRACE came out of the “key” Holy Bull (G2) to post an upset in the Bay Shore (G3) in his last start. He has been working great since and shouldn’t be far away at the wire. #3 HAVANA needed his May 4 comebacker. He’s breezed well in the interim and cannot be ignored today. #1 BAYERN may be placed too low here. He drew the dreaded rail and his Preakness (G1) was dismal, so it was tough to like him too much in this salty field, but he has been training well.

RACE 6 – TVG ACORN (G1)

#8 MY MISS SOPHIA and #3 FIFTYSHADESOFGOLD have something in common. They both got spanked by Untapable in their most recent defeats. Other than that, they are both pretty darn nice fillies. The former is 6/5 and the latter is 8/1. Enough said. #7 UNBRIDLED FOREVER is capable of a big finish if a speed duel develops between the top two girls and any other rivals. She could be along in time. Her 10-1 morning line price is appealing too.

RACE 7 – OGDEN PHIPPS (G1)

This race brings together the trio of the top four-year-old fillies in the nation. #5 BEHOLDER might be the queen of the group. Not only is she gorgeous, but she runs like the wind. She is among the best distaffers I have ever seen in over half a century of racing. I could go on and on, so I will stop here. #6 PRINCESS OF SYLMAR is capable of solid stretch runs, which may bode well for her chances in this event. There should be plenty of pace up front to set up her big finish. #1 CLOSE HATCHES is right there with the other two. She creamed her Oaklawn Park competitors in her only two starts this year and has an affinity for Belmont Park as well.

RACE 8 – LONGINES JUST A GAME (G1)

#10 BETTER LUCKY has my top turf figure and has always run best in her second after a layoff. This is not an easy spot and she drew a difficult post but she’s the pick. #6 STEPHANIE’S KITTEN ran like she missed Wayne Catalano in the Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland. She is a formidable foe on her best day, but it seems like trainer Chad Brown has his work cut out. His other entrant #8 WATERWAY RUN just won a Grade 3 over the course and could easily improve with that score under her belt. #4 SOMALI LEMONADE has turned into a speed mare and a win machine when her retirement was threatened. Maybe that’s what she needed to live up to her promise. Remember, sometimes the “ALL” box is your friend.

RACE 9 – METROPOLITAN HANDICAP (G1)

What a great handicapping puzzle. #4 GOLDENCENTS is a very fast colt who is making his comeback after a seventh month respite. He is capable on his best day, but will he be ready to tackle this caliber of competition off the bench? # 5 MORENO is finally entered at a suitable distance. He has tons of talent, but his connections have tried to make him something he is not – a classic distance horse. Conditions suit today, but you have to think #4 GOLDENCENTS will bother him up front for a while. #1 PALACE MALICE is one of my favorite horses in training. He has been nothing short of sensational this year but drew the rail post, of which trainer Todd Pletcher said, “it would have been my thirteenth pick.” The son of Curlin is a magnificent colt, but he shoulders 124 pounds, giving weight to the entire field and has to do everything perfectly right from the start, at a very short price. #9 NORMANDY INVASION has shown an affinity for a one-turn mile. He’s two races into his comeback and certainly owns the Brisnet speed figures to be competitive here. His 116-pound impost seems like feather in comparison to his chances, so he has to be the top selection.

RACE 10 – KNOB CREEK MANHATTAN (G1)

Never trust the person that tells you they “love” a horse in here. #4 GRANDEUR is one of my favorites and I loved the way #6 SEEK AGAIN ran against Wise Dan, but that’s just history. I have absolutely no clue who might win this race or how it will set up. The best advice might be to head for the bar and have a Knob Creek Manhattan or two while you await the Belmont (G1). “Pick and pray,” as they say.

RACE 11 – THE BELMONT STAKES (G1)

#2 CALIFORNIA CHROME is certainly the best three-year-old of 2014. He has crushed his foes consistently with power and might. I hope he wins the Triple Crown for my friends Art and Alan Sherman. #9 WICKED STRONG will be a formidable foe. He ran in the Holy Bull (G2) – the biggest “key race” of this century – which propelled him to a big win in the Wood Memorial (G1). Trainer Jimmy Jerkens has trained him to the minute for this race after a “better-than-looked” Kentucky Derby (G1) run. #4 COMMANDING CURVE is the “wise guy” horse. He looks good in the past performances and his works leading up to this race have been excellent. He gets a little far back early in his races though and that is not historically good in the Belmont Stakes (G1). #11 TONALIST won the Peter Pan (G2) easily after a short vacation. He beat his previous high Brisnet speed figure by 14 points in that effort and really should bounce to the moon in this race. He’s only had four starts and a mile and a half seems a lot to ask, but the Pleasant Colony on the bottom side of his pedigree means he should run all day and into the night. I don’t really like him, but I could see him in the frame somewhere. #5 RIDE ON CURLIN has improved his Brisnet “late pace” numbers in every race he’s run this year. He gets his fifth rider in his last five starts because the connections are never happy with his trips. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez should cure that problem…unless this colt is not that good. If you are looking for an exotics bomb, #3 MATTERHORN could be your guy. He ran deceptively well in the Peter Pan (G2) over a track he absolutely hated. He’s another with only four starts, but he’s going to be a gazillion to one on the board and would insure a nice price if he gets in the tri or super.

This entry was posted on Friday, June 6th, 2014 at 4:53 pm and is filed under Featured Articles. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.