Many Roads Lead to Breeders’ Cup Wagering Success

By Jude T. Feld

This year, the Breeders’ Cup World Championships will take place on Friday, October 26 and Saturday, October 27 at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. The races offer $23 million in purses and showcase the best equine athletes on the planet alongside racing’s most prominent owners, trainers and jockeys.

Every true Thoroughbred racing aficionado loves the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and the unique level of participation available to them via wagering.

Every horse entered in a Breeders’ Cup race has proven to be top quality, so ferreting out a winning ticket can be a difficult task. The rewards can be great however…sometimes life changing.

The question was posed to several prominent handicappers and racing insiders – “What’s your favorite Breeders’ Cup handicapping angle?”

Here’s how they weighed in:

“With different Breeders’ Cup venues yearly, there are really no tried and true angles that can be applied consistently when talking about these classic races,” said revered Daily Racing Form handicapper Brian Mulligan, who made the “Sweep” selections for many years. “However, there are some guidelines that bettors can use to stay focused and pick winners on the days ‘when the whole world is watching.’

“Bettors have to avoid the temptation of getting caught up in the hype of the extravaganza and stick with solid, principled handicapping tactics when analyzing the races. Remember, every race is about pace and how it will unfold and not always about the sensational unbeaten European superstar or the streaking American bullet who has not yet lost.

“If players project how each race will set up, they will be much more likely to find the winner at the end of the day.

“Another thing bettors have to think about as the Breeders’ Cup nears is the true intention of all the entrants. Isolate barns and connections that have pointed to these races for months and have mapped out a game plan that will allow their horse to peak when the money is down. Connections that are waffling until the eleventh hour about which race a horse will enter should be avoided like the plague.

“On this day more than any other, you have to have the courage of your convictions and a blueprint to succeed.”

Keeneland’s Director of Player Relations Jim Goodman has a specific blueprint to attack the Breeders’ Cup races:

“My favorite angle on Breeders’ Cup day is a function of the full fields of outstanding horses – many at odds that you will never see again. Taking advantage of both the inflated odds and the huge multi-race pools, I play rolling Pick Threes, keying one horse and going deep in the other two legs. The Pick Three payoff almost always exceeds parlay prices.

“Last year, I keyed Ouija Board in the Filly and Mare Turf and caught Dreaming of Anna at $7.20 and Street Sense at $32.40 before she won, so even though she paid only $4.80, the Pick Three came back $384.

“I used Thor’s Echo in the Sprint, the next leg of my rolling Pick Three and that combination paid $1269.80.

“Miesque’s Approval was on my next ticket and that was good for $2,594.80. That’s $4,248.60 in payoffs all because I keyed a mare that paid $4.80. That is unbelievable value.”

Samantha Siegel, who manages her family’s powerful Jay Em Ess Stable, proved her handicapping prowess last summer at Del Mar when she held a lone Pick Six ticket worth over $600,000. Her favorite Breeders’ Cup angle is simple and successful.

“I look for horses who have won Grade 1 and Group 1 races.”

Professional Equibase handicapper Ellis Starr echoes Siegel’s thoughts.

“Grade 1 winners win Grade 1 races. I give Grade 1 or Group 1 winners preference over multiple or last out Grade 2 or Group 2 winners that have never run in a Grade 1 or Group 1 race and over horses that have run in, but have yet to win a Grade 1 or Group 1 race.

“I think long-sprint and middle distance runners have an edge in the TVG Sprint and the Filly & Mare Sprint. I look for horses that have run well at seven to eight furlongs and give them preference over horses who have only done their best at six and six and one-half furlongs.”

Ed Meyer, Director of Marketing at River Downs in Cincinnati has an angle he uses for the whole Breeders’ Cup card.

Dubbed “The Middle Mover,” Ed looks for runners who have been freshened just before the Breeders’ Cup (especially turf runners) and come back and run a specific type of prep race.

The chart line might read something like: 6th – 6th – 5th -2nd -4th.

“This is a runner that is coming back into form and made a sustained move, only to get a little leg weary inside the furlong pole,” Meyer states. “The middle move shows promise, and the next race out, you can look for this horse to have more gas in the tank. The public often dismisses this type of horse as a quitter and the prices go way up. The angle is particularly effective when the horse works solidly after that conditioning race.

Mike Penna, the master of the Horse Racing Radio Network, uses a unique wagering strategy to beat the Breeders’ Cup.

“Breeders’ Cup is the most competitive racing day of the year. The large fields filled with top class runners allow handicappers a unique opportunity to use several horses in their wagers and still get great value.

“I’m a big fan of playing trifectas. I like to use my three or four primary win contenders in the first two places of my tri bet. This usually allows me to throw seven or eight horses into the third slot and hope for a bomb, which on Breeders’ Cup day tends to be the rule rather than the exception. With this strategy, if my handicapping is solid enough to get the exacta from my top 3 or 4 selections, I give myself an opportunity at a life-changing payoff in the tri.”

Hawaiian shirt-clad Jack Catron, a regular participant in Keeneland’s handicapping tournaments, specializes in races on the grass.

“I love turf racing so I concentrate on the NetJets Mile, Emirates Airline Filly and Mare Turf and the John Deere Turf. This year, we’ll have the Juvenile Turf too. That will be fun. I look for horses who sit mid-pack and finish. This Breeders’ Cup will be interesting because the turf at Monmouth Park produced some quick times during the summer. I think the European horses might be at a disadvantage because of that.”

Steeplechase jockey turned racing writer Sean Clancy also fancies the turf races.

“My favorite Breeders’ Cup angle is to get to the racetrack early in the week and watch horses gallop and breeze, especially over the turf. It seems like you can find a few horses every year who show up, thrive, and love the turf.

“Usually, the turf horses have a small window to train over the grass. It’s a great time to get a focused look at them. Singletary comes to mind. He galloped a few days before his Mile victory and just stopped me in my tracks. That was probably my biggest Breeders’ Cup score.

“When the Breeders’ Cup came to Santa Anita, Pleasantly Perfect, Action This Day and Johar blossomed right before my eyes during the week, every time I looked up, I saw one, two or three of them . . . it was like they were staring at me.

“As for reading the Form, there are better people at that than I, so I leave it to seeing the horses in the flesh.”

Susie Grensing, who finished second in the 2007 DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Tournament as a member of Team Keeneland also uses a novel approach. Like Clancy, the Form isn’t really consulted.

“I treat the Breeders’ Cup like any other racing day, betting the races one at a time. Usually, I know who I like when the entries come out. Watching races is my specialty – the races are on a lot at home. I use my stable alerts to keep track of the horses and note their workouts. If I see a horse that should have won a stakes but didn’t because of trouble or some other reason, he goes on my list.

“It is a negative to me when owners or trainers change jockeys right before a big race so I might not bet a horse I am following if that happens.

“There might be just a few horses I bet on Breeders’ Cup day and I will usually bet them straight and key them in exactas and trifectas. If I don’t have a horse in a particular race, I just sit it out.”

Legendary gambler Pittsburgh Phil once offered horseplayers the following advice:

“Successful handicappers know every detail in regard to the horses upon which they are intending to place their money. A person who plays the races successfully must have opinions of their own and the strength to stick to them no matter what they hear.”

Many roads – one goal: A life changing payoff during the 2007 Breeders’ Cup!

This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 24th, 2007 at 4:53 am and is filed under Featured Articles. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.