Jude and Carlo Look at the Kentucky Derby
April 25th, 2008
Big Brown and Kent Desormeaux
John M. Weber Photo
International sports handicapper Carlo “The Iron Horse” Campanella, a regular vistor at racehorsereport.com, sent along his personal Kentucky Derby analysis for the benefit of our readers. You can read more by Carlo at vegasexperts.com and lazerwager.com.
Still Eight Left
By Jude T. Feld
BIG BROWN – I have been impressed with him since watching his amazing maiden-breaker at Saratoga and nothing since has dispelled me from thinking he is a top-class three-year-old on any surface. Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux has high praise for his talent too.
COURT VISION –Hall of Fame trainer Billy Mott loves this colt and his recent :46 1/5 half-mile at Churchill Downs indicates he’s sharpening up. Lots of “sharpies,” including Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee love this colt’s chances for the garland of roses.
TALE OF EKATI – The Derby will be his third race off a layoff and if he continues to move forward for trainer Barclay Tagg, the grandson of Derby winner Sunday Silence could have a major say in the outcome. Prado jumping ship is a concern and his replacement by Eibar Coa doesn’t instill a lot of confidence, but I try to remember that the horses do the running.
ANAK NAKAL – Has the pedigree to run all day and multiple Derby-winning trainer Nick Zito calling the shots. He’ll be a big number too. He is a must-use in trifecta, superfecta and Super High Five plays as he is the most likely to be outrunning tired foes at the end of the Derby. Another plus is the fact that he is already a stakes winner at Churchill Downs.
COLONEL JOHN – Best of the West but might be a tad squeezed after two hard races this year. He has never finished worse than second, ever, so it is hard to place him this low. Trainer Eoin Harty is training him “Baffert style” with aggressive workouts. I hope there is something left in the tank on the first Saturday in May.
ADRIANO – Has a horrible way of going, but the fact that Hall of Fame-elect jockey Edgar Prado chose him over several other contenders makes him somewhat “live.†He’ll need his best effort off a rather lengthy time between starts. He has a good style and is certainly tough to leave out of the exotics.
MONBA – Won the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) in impressive fashion, off a lengthy hiatus, making him a prime “bounce†candidate. His best effort will be needed to win but he is capable. Trainer Todd Pletcher doesn’t seem to have the knack his old boss, D. Wayne Lukas, has with the Triple Crown, but this colt has merit.
Z FORTUNE – Ran well in the Arkansas Derby (G2) but the feeling here is that he is a cut below the best of this year’s sophomores. He’s often the best man but seldom the groom. Trainer Steve Asmussen will have him cranked up and ready for the big dance.
And Then There Were Six…
By Carlo Campanella
PYRO – Packs the best closing punch of the group and still owns the most consistent form of any 3-year-old in this crop, even after he failed to fire for the first time in his career in the Blue Grass Stakes. He never finished worse than third during his initial six starts, so we’re willing to toss out that poor effort as it was run over the Polytrack, while all of his previous races, and the Derby, dirt. In fact, he entered the Blue Grass in great form, earning back-to-back victories in the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby. This colt is a son of Pulpit, who was sired by A.P. Indy, the former Belmont Stakes winner and one of today’s top sires. If you’re looking to knock this favorite, it could only be that his late closing run might get him into traffic trouble when facing 20 other runners.
BIG BROWN – Hails from the barn of Richard Dutrow, Jr. and has been nothing short of awesome while compiling a perfect 3-for-3 lifetime record after taking Saturday’s $1 million dollar Florida Derby. So far, he’s won on both turf and dirt and has shown the ability to rate off the pace or take his foes wire-to-wire. Probably the colt with the least amount of pedigree, sired by $10,000 stud Boundary, but that didn’t keep him from selling for a solid $190,000 at the Keeneland sales. Been working like gang busters in Florida while waiting to make his next start on Derby day. His biggest knock is that he’s lightly raced, just like the last year when we saw an unbeaten, 3-for-3, Curlin finish 4th in the Derby only to improve with every passing start with the extra experience.
COOL COAL MAN – Was once considered trainer Zito’s “other horse,†however, after War Pass was beaten in the Tampa Bay Derby and eventually injured, he’s moved into the limelight. Sired by $75,000 stud Mineshaft, another sire by A.P. Indy, he took the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream by stalking the leaders and sweeping by on the far turn. Willing to toss out his unimpressive effort when he last started in the Blue Grass over Keeneland’s Polytrack, as this colt has done nothing but won 4 of his last 5 races on the dirt!
COLONEL JOHN – Is the toast of the West Coast, amassing 4 wins from 6 lifetime racing exclusively over the Polytrack in California. Enters the Derby with back-to-back victories in Santa Anita’s Sham Stakes (G2) and the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Trained by Eoin Harty for his owner and breeder, WinStar Farm, the biggest knock against this late closing son of Tiznow is that he’s been racing on the Polytrack and now must make the transition to the dirt at Churchill Downs. May have answered those questions by working 5 furlongs in .57 seconds and change, but was that too much before the run for the roses?
TALE OF EKATI – Is one of the most talented 3-year-olds in this crop, but also one of the most inconsistent. His debut was an awesome 8-length maiden score at Belmont Park. Two races later he stepped into the Stakes division by winning the Futurity Stakes also at Belmont. Just when he started looking like the possible 2-year-old Champion, he was destroyed by almost 18-lengths by War Pass in the Breeder’s Cup. Five months later, he turned the tables on War Pass, running him down right at the wire in the Wood Memorial. If War Pass was as good as some people thought, he could win the Derby, just depends on which horse shows up.
MONBA – Like Tale of Ekati, he is talented but unpredictable. The grey son of Maria’s Mon, out of an Easy Goer mare, began his career with back-to-back victories, easily making the jump into the allowance ranks by working out a wide trip from the 11 hole. He moved to the Polytrack afterwards, and finished a solid fourth, less than a length behind the talented Colonel John. The wheels fell off the wagon in the Fountain of Youth, his 3-year-old debut over a sandy Gulfstream Park surface, but he rebounded nicely by defeating Pyro, Visionaire, and Cool Coal Man in the Blue Grass. Was that win aided by the synthetic surface, or has this previous dirt winner just returned to his old form in time for the Derby?
