Notes on the Kentucky Oaks (G1) Program
April 29th, 2009By Jude T. Feld
Today is a day for the gals. ZENYATTA and RACHEL ALEXANDRA are both the queens of their division and will square off against their most powerful adversaries. It should be a grand day of racing.
1st Race) SATIN THUNDER possesses class and speed – a powerful combination. She will be tough to beat at a short price in the opener.
2nd Race) With two solid races on her chart, MY NEW LADY will probably be the deserved favorite. LOKOMAMMA has similar pace figures and was only beaten a couple of lengths by her after a very wide trip. The tables could be turned this afternoon.
3rd Race) JUNE DAY tired in her first route attempt but should be much tighter for the effort. CHAPEL AFFAIR undoubtedly needed her last start. Reunited with Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux this afternoon, she should show further improvement. ON A ROLL stretches out after a couple of excellent seven-furlong preps. The daughter of A.P. Indy cannot be ignored. IVORY EMPRESS ran well in her debut for a stable that is better with second-time starters.
4th Race) ITAIN’TOVER hails from the barn of sensational first-time starter trainer Steve Asmussen. Her bullet workout over the track on April 15 points her out as a major contender. BE ME showed excellent speed before fading late in her Fair Grounds debut. She draws the advantageous outside post and might be a square price.
5th Race) This is a well-matched field unless MUNNINGS is ready to roll off the layoff. He towers over this bunch figure-wise but will be a very short price and must overcome the rail draw as well as the lack of recency. Looks like time to buy a beer, people watch and decide if the expensive son of Speightstown will win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) like his dad.
6th Race) The Aegon Turf Sprint (G3) is often like a Quarterhorse race, as racing luck means everything. SMART ENOUGH and CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE are both win machines who like Churchill’s green. CAPTIVATING CAT and ACCREDIT are both making their first starts on turf but have the pedigrees to excel. Ignore them at your own risk.
7th Race) ZENYATTA is arguably America’s best mare in training. She is a perfect nine-for-nine lifetime and the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (G1) winner will be odds-on to make it an even 10. ONE CAROLINE has never tasted defeat in five lifetime starts and has a legitimate chance to win too. This year’s Louisville (G2) could be a race we’ll remember for a long time.
8th Race) With back-to-back victories, including a Keeneland allowance score on April 8, MAGICAL AFFAIR, a $1.5 million Keeneland September Sale yearling, seems ready to hit the spotlight in the Edgewood Stakes. The regally bred filly from the Michael Matz stable retains the services of jockey Julien Leparoux, who should have her well-placed throughout. EXCELENTE has been training forwardly for her U.S. debut. She narrowly missed beating the colts in Ireland and might be a nice exotics tool, especially with Rafael Bejarano in the saddle.
9th Race) Several horses look primed to win the Alysheba (G3). DR. PLEASURE was cut out to be a good horse but countless setbacks have hindered him. He is two-for-two this year and might finally get a stakes win under his belt. BULLSBAY is very sharp right now. The Laurel invader should get a good trip right behind the speed. Underrated jockey Jeremy Rose aids his cause. READY SET runs best when fresh and could have a say in the trifecta with a good trip. MACHO AGAIN loves Churchill and he is sharp right now. He is always at the mercy of the speed horses however and needs a massive pace duel to run his best.
10th Race) BITTEL ROAD is best on turf and he gets his preferred surface today. The experiment to turn him into a Derby horse is finally over and the talented son of Stormy Atlantic should be a major force in three-year-old grass events the balance of the year. BATTLE OF HASTINGS is undefeated in 2009. He has the fabulous pressing style so effective on the Churchill Downs turf. He is also proven over soft ground which could be plus with showers in the forecast. STORMALORY looked good winning the Central Bank Transylvania (G3) and would not be a surprise winner of the Crown Royal American Turf (G3).
11th Race) Most people think the Kentucky Oaks (G1) will be a walkover for RACHEL ALEXANDRA. She is a special filly who has just annihilated her competitors this year. JUSTWHISTLEDIXIE has won five in-a-row and must be considered somewhat of a threat to America’s darling.
12th Race) The finale is a crapshoot with many of the fillies and mares trying a different distance and/or surface for the first time. If I had to bet, I would probably select WACCAMAW, who has run well going long on the grass and has a top turf pedigree.
