Kentucky Derby Radar – Chapter 4
March 15th, 2010By Jude T. Feld
Will we see it Saturday at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby (G1)?
GULFSTREAM RUMOR MILL (Posted Wednesday, March 17 at 10:30 p.m. ET)
As usual, lots of talk around the track wherever and whenever Derby hopefuls converge.
Rumor #1) The reason ESKENDEREYA scratched as a heavy favorite from the Florida Derby (G1) is because he is supposedly in the process of being purchased by Jess “Rachel Alexandra” Jackson and will be moving to the barn of Steve Asmussen. The Louisiana Derby (G2) is the intended target according to sources close to the situation.
Rumor #2) Some insiders at tonight’s Florida Derby (G1) post position draw were saying that the reason RADIOHEAD worked on the turf for the big race is because he has popped a quartercrack.
Rumor #3) It was some hard lobbying from Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux that convinced owner Robert LaPenta to request Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito to run MINER’S RESERVE in the Florida Derby (G1).
Here are the horses we like for the Kentucky Derby (G1) are:
LOOKIN AT LUCKY ($1,390,000 tops graded earnings list) ran an incredible race in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park, clipping heels with Noble’s Promise down the backstretch and then re-rallying to get the chrome. Trainer Bob Baffert has always been high on the son of Smart Strike and his most recent performance has done nothing to dispel our confidence in this colt to win Kentucky Derby (G1) number four for the Hall of Famer. The Wood (G1) or Arkansas Derby (G1) will be next.
ESKENDARAYA ($150,000) was the buzz horse the week before the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) and he did not disappoint, cruising to an imposing 8 ½-length victory. Trainer Todd Pletcher was pointing his charge to Saturday’s Florida Derby (G1), the next logical stop for the son of Giant’s Causeway. He was the heavy antepost favorite for that one but is reportedly headed to the Wood Memorial (G1) instead.
AWESOME ACT ($210,000) won the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct in visually impressive fashion. The Awesome Again colt, trained by British-based Jeremy Noseda, was making his first start on the real dirt and his first since finishing fourth in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G2). Noseda said the Wood Memorial (G1) April 3 at the Big A is the plan.
INTERACTIF ($270,450) showed his mettle with a nice closing effort behind “lone f†winner Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (G2). The son of Broken Vow, from the Todd Pletcher barn, has plenty of graded earnings to make the Derby and seems to act on any surface. It has been reported that his final prep will come in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
NOBLE’S PROMISE ($708,000) has never been out of the money. His excellent second-place finish behind Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel (G2) was the third time he has been beaten by that rival but the closest margin yet. Could he be the new Sham?
RADIOHEAD ($196,332) had been training super according to trainer Rick Dutrow and did not disappoint his backers while an easier allowance winner at Gulfstream. Gotta love a fresh, sound colt at this time of year, so expect some big things from the son of Johannesburg in the Florida Derby (G1).
The winter rains may have tightened up the Fair Grounds main track as the Risen Star (G3) was a parade from start to finish. DISCREETLY MINE ($310,000) went wire-to-wire with the second and third place finishers following him around the track. It was his first race around two-turns and he could improve as the distances increase with his outstanding pedigree (Mineshaft – Private Account mare). Pletcher will probably wheel him back in the Louisiana Derby (G2).
Trainer Bob Baffert’s CONVEYANCE ($210,000) continued his unbeaten streak with a wire-to-wire score over Dublin in the Southwest (G3). The winner looked super going postward and ran to his looks. If he continues to learn how to ration his speed in longer races, the Indian Charlie colt could be a force on the first Saturday in May. The Sunland Derby (G3) on March 28 may be next.
DUBLIN ($273,208) probably bounced a little in the Rebel (G2), off his nice run against Conveyance in the Southwest (G3), especially after posting a couple of bullet workouts in between. With two races off the layoff, Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas can back off of him a bit. Look for a more patient ride from Corey Nakatani in the Arkansas Derby (G2).
MENDIP (0) kept his unbeaten streak intact, taking the Al Bastakiya Stakes at Meydan in easy fashion, while defeating stablemate and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Vale of York. The UAE Derby (G2) is next on the dancecard for the Harlan’s Holiday colt who will need a big showing to earn enough to get into the Derby field.
OFF THE SCREEN SINCE CHAPTER 3
BUDDY’S SAINT chipped an ankle working out and is off the Derby trail. The Bruce Levine trainee had a rough go this winter. Hopefully he’ll be a good four-year-old.
AMERICAN LION seems to be one of those three-year-olds who was better at two. He has shown little development in 2010 and seems to be a fringe player at this point.
OTHER OBSERVATIONS
Usually when five horses hit the wire together, it was not much of a race. The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) was such an event and we’ll need to see some significant improvement from any of those sophomores in their next starts before considering them as legitimate Kentucky Derby (G1) contenders.
