Derby Implications Aside – How About a Coolmore Exacta in the Coolmore Lexington (G2)?
April 16th, 2010By Jude T. Feld
The road makes its final bend toward Churchill Downs on Saturday. How will the Coolmore Lexington (G2) affect the Kentucky Derby picture?Our friend Dick Downey, who covers the Triple Crown like nobody else we know, served this up on his www.thedowneyprofile.com:
“There are Kentucky Derby implications embedded in the Coolmore Lexington (G2), and while options are very limited, the prospective results are akin to figuring out which NFL wildcard teams will make the playoffs with two weeks left in the season.
There were no supplemental entries, so the winner’s share remains at $180,000–with second paying $60,000–from a total purse of $300,000.
Connemara has $138,500 in graded earnings. A win qualifies him for the Kentucky Derby and would virtually eliminate all others in the race from consideration for the Derby.
Should Connemara finish second, he’d have $198,500, putting him 24th on the earnings list, one spot behind Make Music for Me and just ahead of A Little Warm and Setsuko, who are tied with $180,000–unless Uptowncharlybrown or Chief Counsel wins the race.
Uptowncharlybrown has $29,000 in graded money, and Chief Counsel has $24,250. If either wins the Lexington, he’ll land in spot number 24–and if Connemara runs second, he’d be number 25.
Call Shot has $1,208 graded earnings, and Exhi has $358. A win for one of them would ooch the horse just past A Little Warm and Setsuko in the standings–but if Connemara finishes second, he’d stay ahead of Call Shot or Exhi in overall graded earnings.
Bushwhacked, Distorted Dave, Kettle River and Prince Will I Am have no graded earnings, so should one of them be victorious, he lands in a tie with A Little Warm and Setsuko.
Heavenville has $1,139 in graded earnings, but he isn’t nominated to the Triple Crown and would have to be supplemented at a cost greater than the winner’s share of the Lexington.
Krypton and Lonesome Street have no graded stakes starts, and neither is nominated to the Triple Crown.â€
Here’s our view of the proceedings:
CALL SHOT beat Illinois Derby (G3) winner American Lion when he broke his maiden and he finished third behind an extremely well-meant and impressive Radiohead in his last start, an allowance affair at Gulfstream Park. The son of Coolmore stallion Tale of the Cat posted a sparkling five-furlong drill at Keeneland on April 5, stopping clocker John Nichols’ watch in :58 2/5. His trainer, Wayne Catalano, wins at a 39% when Junior Alvarado rides his horses and CALL SHOT’s lone victory came with him in the saddle. At 10-1 on the morning line, the rapidly improving $235,000 Keeneland Sale grad offers tremendous value.
CONNEMARA has never finished out of the money in five career starts. The trouble-prone son of Coolmore stallion Giant’s Causeway is actually owned by the Coolmore braintrust of Magnier, Tabor and Smith who sponsor the Lexington (G2). Off slowly in the Lane’s End (G2) at Turfway Park in his last start, the Todd Pletcher trainee rallied extremely wide to finish third behind Dean’s Kitten. If Hall of Fame jockey Russell Baze can get CONNEMARA to break better and save a little ground, he will be one formidable foe.
BUSHWACKED just broke his maiden and has never gone two turns, but he has something the rest of the field does not – Jonathan Sheppard is his trainer. The Hall of Fame conditioner has won plenty of stakes and he certainly wouldn’t enter this one just to enjoy the trees in the Keeneland paddock. A big effort can be expected from the son of Posse, who should get a great trip right behind the speed under rising star jockey Rajiv Maragh.
UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN exits the maligned Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He will be a sentimental favorite of many fans, having lost his trainer, Alan Seewald, to a heart attack earlier in the week. The son of Limehouse runs consistent Brisnet speed figures in the 90s and his pace numbers are a solid fit. Both of his victories have come sprinting however, so he will need to improve his stretch punch to be a threat in this field.
To check out our Kentucky Derby Radar – Chapter 7 click here.
