KENTUCKY DERBY DAY SELECTIONS

By Jude T. Feld

1st Race) With a triple advantage in speed figures and a drop in class from Derby preps to an allowance race, STAY PUT should be tough to beat. If you had said earlier this year that he would win at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, here’s your chance to say, “I told you so.”

2nd Race) BOLD VICTORY is trained by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, who loves to win “when the whole world is watching.” Look for a big performance from the Vindication colt. HENCEFORTH ran very well in his only distance race. He has good speed and adds blinkers to keep him focused. The son of Hennessey could go wire-to-wire if left alone on the lead. RAPHAEL ALEXANDRO is improving and dangerous. The Steve Asmussen trainee is a must-use in all exotic wagers.

3rd Race) If this race stays on the turf, SHERYL’S MELODY will be an excellent value wager. The daughter of More Than Ready has run well on the dirt but will switch to the surface she is bred for. She stands out on converted turf figures and having Kent Desormeaux in the saddle only enhances her chances. C.S. ROYCE no doubt needed her last start, having been off since November. Jockey Garrett Gomez takes over today and that could spell trouble for the rest of the field. HEART UNION had a rough trip in her debut but still managed a fourth-place finish. She has worked well in the interim and should get a better trip under top turf rider Julien Leparoux.

4th Race) VIA VERDE has been facing the likes of Conveyance (in today’s Derby) and multiple stakes winner Macias. This field is much easier. His pace numbers are competitive and top young jockey Joe Talamo should give him a good ride. He’ll be a nice price too. SPOOKY’S READY had excellent form as a two-year-old. He makes his 2010 debut in this spot and could upset the apple cart if he has matured since last year. NEW PAIS looked sharp breaking his maiden at Keeneland. He earned excellent speed and pace figures that day and should be competitive here.

5th Race) HYMN BOOK always runs well. The son of Arch owns an excellent “pressing” style that should serve him well on the Churchill Downs turf course. He will be the favorite but is the most likely entrant to find the winners’ circle. UTTERLY COOL is another solid performer. He came off a 16-month layoff to finish third last time out and should be much tighter for the experience. PICKAPOCKET hasn’t won in a long time but he could give this group a tussle with his best effort.

6th Race) Heavy favorite HOT DIXIE CHICK has won four straight and should make it five in the Eight Belles (G3). The only thing that could defeat her is the 7 1/2 furlong distance of today’s event, which is farther than she has ever raced before. BUCKLEUPBUTTERCUP has been running well and has the best late pace figures. She could pick up the pieces.

7th Race) FANTASIA (GB) ran super in her American debut but fell a neck short. Jockey Julien Leparoux got to know her in that race and he should have an easier time with the daughter of sensational turf sire Sadler’s Wells this afternoon. She handles any kind of ground. HOT CHA CHA has developed into a top filly. She ran the best race of her life in the Jenny Wiley (G2) last time out and could be tough today if she doesn’t bounce off that race. TIZAQUEENA has won her last two starts against easier company and will get the acid test in the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2). Having top jockey Garret Gomez aboard is a plus for her.

8th Race) INFORMED DECISION ran flat at Keeneland when she returned to the races after her resounding Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) victory last fall. A :59 flat workout since then indicates Hall of Fame trainer Jonathan Sheppard means to defend her Humana Distaff (G1) crown in earnest. WARBLING ran super in the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream Park in her latest. She has shown a fondness for Churchill Downs and is the filly the favorite will have to run down. PRETTY PROLIFIC and CASSIDY’S PRIDE round out the main competition.

9th RACE) Carter Handicap (G1) winner WARRIOR’S REWARD is in sharp form. He has run well in Louisville and finds a speed laden field to set up his closing charge. Seven furlong specialist MUSKET MAN should get first run on the top choice. The son of Yonaguska fires every time and a win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G2) wouldn’t be a shocker. MUNNINGS has a touch of class. He adores today’s distance and should be much tighter for this one with a race under his belt.

10th Race) BATTLE OF HASTINGS (GB) is my favorite horse in training. He is capable of some unbelievable finishes but has been the victim of some dubious rides in his last several starts. Jockey Ramon Dominguez will try his hand today and maybe that will help the Royal Applause (GB) gelding return to his championship form. BLUES STREET has won four in-a-row at three different racetracks. Another big race can be expected in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1). COURT VISION ran third behind Einstein (BRZ) in last year’s event. He will most certainly be among the favorites and he should give a good account of himself once again. YATE’S BLACK CAT might be a little light on his stakes resume but there is no denying he likes the Churchill Downs turf. He could be part of the tri or super.

11th Race) LOOKIN AT LUCKY has been on my Kentucky Derby (G1) radar all year long. He has won the war of attrition and now must overcome his rail draw to wear the garland of roses – no easy task. There are several things to like about him however, including his multiple Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, his unyielding tenacity and his blossoming since coming to Churchill Downs. Now is not the time to jump ship. AWESOME ACT looked super winning the Gotham (G3) and had some very legitimate excuses for his third-place finish behind ill-fated Eskendereya in the Wood (G1). He has trained well here and should rebound to his best form today. SUPER SAVER has two good prep races under his belt and trainer Todd Pletcher has stated that his charge is “training better than he ever has” this week. That should bode well for his chances to be part of the picture at the wire. MISSION IMPAZIBLE is improving and dangerous. He seems to relish wet tracks, which may promote his chances if the expected rain materializes.

12th Race) Sharp trainer Thomas Drury, Jr. puts blinkers on GRAND DADDY in the hopes of making him focus more near the wire. The improving colt looks like the one to beat here. E Z’S GENTLEMAN invades from California off a second-place finish in the Potrero Grand (G2). The Bob Baffert trainee should give a good account of himself in this much easier spot. CORONET OF A BARON debuts for cagey trainer Grant Forster. The Pure Prize colt will be flying late under longshot jockey Jon Court.

13th Race) GALIENTOS needed his last start after taking the winter off. He should be much fitter this afternoon with a race and two workouts since. EASY TO PLEASE ME has been working like his tail is on fire, but trainer Lori Hendrickson only wins with 4% of her first-time starters. Sometimes ability overcomes training.

This entry was posted on Thursday, April 29th, 2010 at 10:15 am and is filed under Selections. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.