Kentucky Derby Short List
January 7th, 2006by Jude T. Feld
Brother Derek Has The Right Stuff
Benoit Photo
The Derby train has rolled through Lexington picking up “steam” in the Keeneland pressbox after Sinister Minister’s freakish display in the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) and Showing Up’s game performance in the Coolmore Lexington (G2). Per racetrack custom, rumors abound and Kentucky Derby (G1) time is the right time for the mill to be cranking.
The most notable gossip came from the shedrow of trainer Bob Baffert: Lanni Family Trust and Mercedes Stable’s Sinister Minister was knocked out by his 116 Beyer, 12 3/4-length romp in two Saturday’s ago and will pass the Derby. This rumor is probably true. Baffert is sharp enough to know that Sinister Minister could win the Preakness (G1) in a waltz after all the early speed types bang their heads against the wall trying to go a mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs.
Second on the list of tidbits was that Lael Stable’s Showing Up was passing the Run for the Roses. Also probably true as Barclay Tagg is a very conservative trainer and the owners already have another more accomplished and undefeated colt in the race – possible Derby favorite, Barbaro.
The third rumor became fact when Kiaran McLaughlin declared John Dillon’s Coolmore Lexington (G2) runner-up Like Now from Derby contention. The soft-spoken trainer is reportedly extremely happy with the progress Shadwell Stable’s Jazil has been making, since his second-place finish to Bob and John in the Wood Memorial.
What is a handicapper gonna do now?
Beyer Speed Figures are designed to level the playing field. They take into account final time and track variant, supposedly equalizing ratings from one track to another. The system is not infallible, but it is an excellent measure of horse’s ability and a solid gauge of their past efforts. Here are the ratings Beyer assigned the winners of the major nine furlong Derby steppingstones:
Toyota Blue Grass (G1) 116, Illinois Derby (G2) 109, Santa Anita Derby (G1) 108, Florida Derby (G1) 103, Wood Memorial (G1) 99, Arkansas Derby (G2) 98.
The average winning Beyer Speed Figure earned by the last 14 Derby winners is 109. Not surprisingly, most Derby winners have had to prove that they can at least breach the Beyer century mark prior to the Kentucky Derby. In the past 14 years only Giacomo and Sea Hero had failed to run a Beyer Figure greater than 100 before winning the Derby. In fact, nine of the past 14 Derby winners ran at least two triple digit Beyer Figures in their final three Derby preps.
Half of the past 14 Derby winners ran their career best Beyers in their last pre-Derby prep races. Five of those either regressed slightly or ran the same number in the Derby, while War Emblem and Silver Charm surpassed their previous top figures at Churchill.
If in fact Sinister Minister does not run, it would be hard to back any other Toyota Blue Grass (G1) entrant, as second-place finisher Storm Treasure was assigned a 95, the best race of his life, and well behind the major contenders.
The only contender from the Illinois Derby (G2) to consider is the winner, the Basalmo’s Sweetnorthernsaint. His closest rival, Mister Triester could only manage a 94 Beyer figure, nine and a quarter lengths behind.
Southern California’s Santa Anita Derby (G1) provides us with three contenders, the winner, Cecil Peacock’s Brother Derek with a 108, Robert and Beverly Lewis Trust’s Point Determined at 103 and third-place finisher A.P. Warrior, earning an even 100.
Barbaro, unbeaten Florida Derby (G1) victor, got a 103 for his efforts, with second-pace finisher Sharp Humor checking in right behind at 102.
The winners of the Wood Memorial (G1), Bob and John and the Arkansas Derby (G2), Lawyer Ron, didn’t even break the century mark winning those races.
Machiavelli said, “Whoever wishes to foresee the future must consult the past; for human events ever resemble those of preceding times. This arises from the fact that they are produced by men who ever have been, and ever shall be, animated by the same passions, and thus they necessarily have the same results.”
Only three top contenders meet the Two Double Digit Beyers/Best Lifetime Beyer in Last criteria – Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined. If you want to cash a ticket on Derby day, that short list is a good place to start.
