The Beauty and the Beast in the Belmont (G1)
June 4th, 2007by Jude T. Feld
To the casual racing fan, this year’s Belmont Stakes (G1) is shaping up as a bit of a yawner. With no Triple Crown on the line and the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Street Sense absent from the field, the race is just another blurb on Sports Center.
Handicappers however, are looking forward to the intricate puzzle of pedigree, speed figures and distance ability and how they all fit together to ferret out the winner of the last classic race of 2007.
Here’s a little early analysis of the probables to whet your appetite for Saturday.
HARD SPUN runs consistently good Brisnet speed figures. The slowest of his last three races being the 105 he earned in the Kentucky Derby (G1). There are five possible Belmont entrants that have never darkened the door of a 105 in their last three starts. DIGGER, IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY, SLEW’S TIZZY, TIAGO and TIME SQUARED. They can probably be safely eliminated as major contenders.
The par speed figure for the Belmont Stakes (G1) is 107. The best CIRCULAR QUAY has ever run is a 106 in the Preakness Stakes (G1), his last start. Having missed a start before the Derby because he looked too skinny to trainer Todd Pletcher was a warning sign. Running back-to-back clunkers in the Derby and Preakness, fourteen days apart, makes two more. Three strikes and you’re out.
Everyone knows stamina is an important factor in the Belmont. Par for the hybrid figure of speed and late pace is 209. Hard Spun’s best is 200 and he has backed up in both of his races over a mile and one-eighth. He also has the bad karma of jockey firing hanging over his head as Mario Pino was given the boot for Garrett Gomez. The racing gods frown on such behavior. In the words of Ann Robinson on The Weakest Link, “Goodbye.â€
That leaves us two: CURLIN and RAGS TO RICHES
I am sure you will be shocked to find out that CURLIN ran the best Brisnet speed figure of his life (113) in the Preakness. It was 11 points higher than his previous top of 102, when he won the Arkansas Derby (G2) by 10 lengths in effortless fashion. His hybrid figure from the Preakness was a whopping 226…way…way above par for the Belmont, which means he could even “bounce†a tad and still be tough to beat.
Pedigree wise, the Mr. Prospector in him gives him lots of speed and a dosage index of 4.00 – just at the qualifying mark for the Derby distance of a mile and a quarter, but that is all on paper. In the flesh, trainer Steve Asmussen has trained his charge to use his inherited speed at the end on the race, making him a very formidable foe.
RAGS TO RICHES ran her best Brisnet speed figure (109) in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), her last trip to the gate. Her hybrid figure from that effort was an excellent 220. The $1.9 million Keeneland yearling has had the benefit of an extra 15 days between starts too.
The daughter of A.P. Indy, a son of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, has a dosage index of 3.00 – well within the traditional Derby guidelines and being a half-sister to last year’s Belmont winner, Jazil, automatically o.k.s her on pedigree. She has also learned to use her speed at the end, with every one of her late pace figures superior to early pace numbers.
It is interesting to note that both of our top contenders are out of Deputy Minister mares. (His image graces this page.)
Maybe this year’s Belmont will be a twist on an old plot – The Beauty and the Beast.
UPDATE: Trainer Nick Zito has thrown C P West, fourth in the Preakness (G1) into the fray. Although his Pimlico speed figure was 107, his hybrid figure was only 199, a lifetime top for him. Trainer Patrick Biacone has decided to pass the Belmont with Time Squared in favor of a grass race at Colonial Downs.
