Notes on the Major Kentucky Derby (G1) Preps

By Jude T. Feld

Morning line maker Jeff Tufts has opened Pioneerof the Nile (turquoise and gold silks) as the second choice behind The Pamplemousse in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Benoit Photo

ILLINOIS DERBY (G2) – HAWTHORNE 7TH

GIANT OAK was the “wise-guy” horse going into the Louisiana Derby (G2). He had a horrible trip in the Risen Star (G3) and the local handicappers thought a big race was imminent. When the rains came and the track turned soupy, I downgraded him, as his pedigree really doesn’t scream off tracks. If he gets a fast surface at Hawthorne, he could run the race the Cajuns were looking for and pay a decent price too.

WOOD MEMORIAL (G1) – AQUEDUCT 9TH

I WANT REVENGE blitzed the Gotham (G3) field and will be heavily favored to win the Wood. There are reasons to bet against him however:

1) He ran a massive speed figure, the best of his life by far, and is likely to bounce.
2) He traveled to New York for the Gotham, back to California and back to New York in a month’s time.
3) If LORD JUSTICE runs, the pace will be more honest and he is unlikely to get an easy lead.

IMPERIAL COUNCIL, who finished second to him in the Gotham (G3), was given a lot to do by jockey Rajiv Maragh, especially on the Aqueduct inner track. Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado fits the son of Empire Maker much better and knows him well. Rest assured, Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey will have his charge ready for a corker in his final prep for the Kentucky Derby (G1).

SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) – SANTA ANITA 6TH

If THE PAMPLEMOUSSE goes favored over PIONEEROF THE NILE as morning line maker Jeff Tufts suggests, a major wager on the Bob Baffert trainee could be called for. The pace of this race looks to be pretty hot and should not allow THE PAMPLEMOUSSE his usual easy front-running trip, especially from the outside post. PIONEEROF THE NILE has been facing better competition and performing to expectations all Derby season. Baffert has him “tightened down” for this race and there is no reason to bet against him, especially as a low-priced overlay.

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