Notes on the Preakness Program
May 14th, 2009By Jude T. Feld
The Preakness (G1) always seems like the least respected race in the Triple Crown but it usually holds the most intrigue. This year’s edition is no exception, as superfilly RACHEL ALEXANDRA opens up as the 8-5 morning line favorite, while Kentucky Derby winner MINE THAT BIRD is 6-1 early. Much has been made of the fact that jockey Calvin Borel chose to ride the Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner over the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, but did racing’s favorite Jay Leno guest make the right decision?
PIMLICO 7th RACE) On paper, the Gallorette (G3) shapes up as a two-horse race. Grade 1 winner DYNAFORCE holds a huge class edge and owns the best turf figure. Her only knock is that she hasn’t run since being unplaced in the Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) at Santa Anita last October. She ran second to Mauralakana in the New York (G2) at Belmont Park in her U.S. debut last June after being away from the races for 10 months, so she can run well fresh. ALL IS VANITY, a Grade 2 winner, has the benefit of a prep race – a solid third in the South Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Her turf numbers are competitive with DYNAFORCE and she will be tough to beat if that one isn’t ready to fire off the bench.
PIMLICO 8th RACE) Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has been trying to teach TAQARUB to rate. The son of Aldebaran was unbeatable in the first three races of his career when he was allowed to bounce away from the gate and run away from the field. Back running six furlongs in the Hirsch Jacobs (G3) this afternoon, while breaking from Pimlico’s advantageous rail post position, look for the Shadwell Stable colorbearer to take this field wire-to-wire. NOT FOR SILVER should get a great trip just behind TAQARUB. His pace figures are certainly competitive with his chief rival and if a speed duel develops, he could be the beneficiary.
PIMLICO 9th RACE) Regular Keeneland players know that the local turf course is often unkind to front runners. AFFIRMATIF, whose name was being bantered about as a Kentucky Derby (G1) possibility after his nine-length, wire-to-wire maiden victory on the grass at Gulfstream Park, found the stiffer competition and adverse conditions a bit too much when sent off as the odds-on favorite in Lexington. The Pimlico turf course is much more favorable to speed and this Woodlawn Stakes field is not particularly deep. He can be relied on for a top effort.
PIMLICO 10th RACE) Speedy RAVALO prepped for the Maryland Sprint (G3) in Keeneland’s Commonwealth (G2), showing good speed for three-quarters of a mile and then tiring in the final eighth of the seven-furlong race. Dropping back to six furlongs this afternoon, the Kentucky-bred win machine looks formidable under top jockey John Velazquez. Maryland favorite AH DAY has won 11 of 26 lifetime starts. He owns five victories in seven races at six furlongs and is capable of winning with his best effort. GRAND TRAVERSE comes off a corker at Churchill Downs where he won by seven and earned a 103 Brisnet speed figure against much easier company. He could have a say in the outcome if he repeats that performance here.
PIMLICO 11th RACE) The Dixie (G2) is the type of race that has provided PROUDINSKY with most of his $1 million bankroll. He came up a tad short in Churchill Downs’ Turf Classic (G1) on Derby day, a race he may have needed. He shoulders 124 pounds and is no cinch to win, but he is the top contender. Being coupled with underachiever MUSKETIER adds some appeal, as that one always seems to be sitting on a big effort. STRIKE A DEAL has solid figures but will need to overcome his six-month vacation to win. WESLEY is an in-and-outer who popped off with a fancy Miami Handicap (G3) victory in his last start. A similar effort puts him close. JUST AS WELL has placed in two Grade1 races this year and his Hall of Fame trainer, Jonathan Sheppard, is very hot right now. LAURO is the mystery horse from Germany. He won the Sky Classic (G2) at Woodbine last fall and that makes him an automatic contender.
PIMLICO 12th RACE) Only one point in my pace ratings separate RACHEL ALEXANDRA and MINE THAT BIRD, yet she will be the heavy favorite while he will be overlooked in the wagering. Second and third-place Kentucky Derby (G1) finishers PIONEEROF THE NILE and MUSKET MAN were noses apart at the wire and probably round out the true contention, although if the track comes up muddy, BIG DRAMA, a son of superior mud sire Montbrook should be considered in all exotic wagers.
RACHEL ALEXANDRA drew a horrible post for the Preakness (G1) but she has excellent early speed and should be able to avoid trouble if she breaks well. She has done everything right and has been ultra-impressive winning, especially in her 2009 races. She has switched barns since the Oaks and that means a new feeding program, a new groom and new surroundings. If the post and lifestyle changes don’t affect her, watch out!
MINE THAT BIRD made a visually impressive three-eighths mile run at the end of the Derby and took home the roses. There is no reason to believe that if a pace duel develops in the Preakness (G1) that he can’t make a similar run for the Woodlawn Vase. He certainly is the value bet if the morning line maker is correct.
PIONEEROF THE NILE would have won the Derby if MINE THAT BIRD had encountered trouble along his perfect trip. He has trained well since and trainer Bob Baffert seems extra confident of his chances.
MUSKET MAN is formidable and keeps outrunning his pedigree. He posted a bullet drill at Monmouth Park indicating he retains his sharpness.
BIG DRAMA is a new shooter. He has won six straight races and is bred for the mud as well. He should be considered in the mix, especially if the track is off.
