Kentucky Derby Radar – Chapter 8

Jude T. Feld

Drinking the D. Wayne Lukas Kool-Aid can make the Kentucky Derby (G1) picture more than just a little fuzzy. To access our facebook page, click here.

Derby week officially starts on Saturday with the running of The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial (G3) at Churchill Downs. That race is absolutely the very last chance for a three-year-old on the Derby trail to amass graded earnings. A victory will most likely be needed to enter the big dance and the last steed to win the Saturday before the Kentucky Derby (G1) and then wear the garland of roses the following week was Cannonade in 1974, so we shouldn’t expect too much.

It seems as though the Triple Crown contenders this year were divided into two groups – the contenders and the pretenders. The same two colts stayed at the top of the list most of Derby season and occasionally a new shooter would pose a threat, but in the end, it seems that ESKENDEREYA and LOOKIN AT LUCKY are at the top of their class and a small group is chasing them. After last year’s Derby victory by outsider Mine That Bird however, we found it is an error to dismiss anyone in the 20-horse field without careful scrutiny.

There are two horses who came close to being on my Kentucky Derby Radar – DUBLIN ($373,208) and SUPER SAVER ($363,832). I am a sucker for D. Wayne Lukas and his line of bull, so when he was spouting off about how great his colt was, I drank the Kool-Aid. After a good second to Conveyance in the Southwest (G3), I happily became a member of the DUBLIN “marching and chowder society,” as Vin Scully would say.

DUBLIN put in a sparkling :59 1/5 seconds five-eighths workout at Churchill Downs on Monday, much to the delight of his Hall of Fame trainer. There is no doubt that the son of Afleet Alex has ability, but his two mediocre stretch runs in the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) have me wondering if the breathing problems he had at the end of his two-year-old season are still haunting him a bit. It is one thing to work five furlongs fast, but how much punch will he have on the turn for home on the first Saturday in May? I’m thinking probably not enough, so he is off my list despite Wayne’s continued enthusiasm.

Ellis Starr, the self-proclaimed “Ubercapper” and Handicapper-in-Chief for Equibase, Thoroughbred racing’s official database, made a great case for SUPER SAVER last week, as several racing scribes were “talkin’ Derby to me” in the Keeneland pressbox. Pedigree, performance and Equibase speed figure analysis were the reasoning behind his thought that the son of Maria’s Mon was a contender, so this was more than just “Ellis being Ellis.”

SUPER SAVER made his 2010 debut in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), a prep race I marked “bogus” immediately following the running. I cut him a little slack however, because he had a sparkling two-year-old season and it was his first start of the year. He ran o.k. in the Arkansas Derby (G1), finishing second in a parade behind the feared Line of David, but the son of Maria’s Mon showed little gumption in the stretch. His two victories have been open-length wire jobs which make me think he’ll be in tough with all the early speed types waiting to contest the Derby. Sorry Ellis, I can’t use him on top but I could throw him in a tri, maybe.

Here is the current ‘Radar list, subject to change until my selections are up for Oaks and Derby days next week:
(Up to the minute info will be posted in bold italics from now until Derby.)

LOOKIN AT LUCKY ($1,480,000 TOPS GRADED EARNINGS LIST) had more problems than Charlie Sheen in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). It is always easier to see the unfolding of a race through binoculars or on television than it is when you are riding in it, but heralded jockey Garrett Gomez never seemed to have this talented colt in a position to win at any time during the running. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was quite critical of his rider after the race, suggesting a remedial review of Jerry Bailey’s horseracing DVD, oft hawked on TVG, was in order. Watching the son of Smart Strike make two runs and still finish with something left did little to shake Baffert’s confidence in his charge and we have been on the bandwagon all season long. Gomez will reportedly keep the mount for the Kentucky Derby (G1) and in his defense and to his credit, he did not abuse LOOKIN AT LUCKY after the trouble encountered around the 5/16 pole, choosing wisely to save him for the first Saturday in May. Reports from the barn indicate their stable star exited the SA Derby in good order and he is kicking up his heels in the morning – a very positive sign. He worked six furlongs under the twin spires in 1:12 flat on Wednesday morning and is scheduled for one more breeze before the Derby.

ESKENDEREYA ($600,000) followed up his resounding Fountain of Youth (G2) victory with another trouncing of his foes in the Wood Memorial (G1). There is no doubt that the son of Giant’s Causeway is the real deal as the field assembled in New York was the best of Derby season and he made mincemeat of them. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been close in the Kentucky Derby (G1) but a win still eludes him. This colt certainly looks like his best chance ever to break the jinx. His adding front wraps to the equipment for the Wood (G1) was a talking point last week but sources tell us that they were precautionary because several horses were burning their fetlocks at Aqueduct.

ENDORSEMENT ($400,000) got just that from rival trainer Bob Baffert who said after the Sunland Derby (G3) loss by his previously unbeaten Conveyance, “I think the horse that beat us, of all the others I’ve seen lately, that was pretty impressive. I think we saw a star born today.” Shannon Ritter trains the talented son of Distorted Humor, who has made steady improvement in each of his four starts and seems destined for more. A bullet :46 and change workout at Keeneland since his race underlines how sharp he seems right now and his 1:01 2/5 in Lexington on Saturday was done with consummate ease.

MISSION IMPAZIBLE ($473,434), a son of top sire Unbridled’s Song, put it all together in the Louisiana Derby (G2) after only four starts and one race around two turns. Lightly raced and improving colts are highly sought after this time of year, so it wouldn’t be a stretch to think another leap forward in the Kentucky Derby (G1) could find the Todd Pletcher trainee posing for pictures. He stretched his legs going a five furlongs at Palm Meadows Saturday morning in 1:02 1/5.

AWESOME ACT ($285,000) missed some training going into the Wood Memorial (G1) and then blew a shoe at the start. He still managed to run decently after all that, so it is evident that the son of Awesome Again has some grit. You hate to see a colt have anything but a perfect path leading up to the Derby but you’ve gotta give him an “A” for effort. He certainly has the talent to be part of the mix on the First Saturday in May if the rest of April is good to him. The Jeremy Noseda trainee worked six furlongs at Churchill Downs on Tuesday morning, stopping the clockers’ watches at 1:12 3/5 over the fast main track.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 20th, 2010 at 12:35 pm and is filed under Featured Articles. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.