Kentucky Derby Watch List – Volume 4
February 28th, 2011By Jude T. Feld
The Fountain of Youth (G2) was planned to be the validation of To Honor and Serve as a major contender for the Triple Crown but that is why they run the races. After his so-so performance, many are looking elsewhere for their Derby favorite. Obviously, Soldat has picked up a few followers after his big win, but where do these two fit in the overall picture? Here is how we see it:
UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie 2.20 Pletcher)
Todd Pletcher must be licking his chops. He said prior to the Fountain of Youth that he was, “an interested observer,†so he must have enjoyed watching the colt who was considered the major competition, folding like a lawn chair. Uncle Mo breezed 1:00 3/5 on Sunday in preparation for his March 12 start in the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park.. The son of Indian Charlie, owned by the inventor of “Vitamin Water,†Mike Repole, has the feel of a very special horse. He is the King until toppled.
ROGUE ROMANCE (Smarty Jones 3.00 McPeek)
With enough graded earnings to get in the Kentucky Derby (G1), trainer Kenny McPeek had the luxury of entering Rogue Romance anywhere he wanted to start on the road to the Triple Crown. He has chose the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds and got a solid performance from his colt, who ran into more problems than Dick Tracy. The feeling here is that he could have won the race easily with a clear trip. After the Fountain of Youth became official, he moved up to number two. Here is Rogue Romance’s New Orleans adventure under Julien Leparoux:
BRETHREN (Distorted Humor 3.00 Pletcher)
Trainer Todd Pletcher got everything he could have asked from Brethren in his Sam F. Davis (G3) performance – a perfect trip, a visually impressive victory and a move forward toward the Triple Crown. The WinStar Farm colt is undefeated as he heads to his next start, which will most likely be the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 12. He worked an easy half at Palm Meadows in preparation on March 27. A half-brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Super Saver, Brethren has lots to live up to, but he looks like he loves his job in the family business.
SOLDAT (War Front 2.47 McLaughlin)
When we interviewed trainer Kiarin McLaughlin on the Friday before the Fountain of Youth (G2), the optimism in his voice was contagious. “It’s just that Soldat is doing great right now,†he said. “Better than ever.†And when he pressed about the colt’s quality, he said, “He’s better than Closing Argument.†That was a huge endorsement to me, as that colt, who lost the Kentucky Derby (G1) by a half-length to Giacomo, was a very talented runner. I think the son of War Front has even more in the tank and is sitting in a cozy spot with five weeks to the Florida Derby (G1) and the five weeks to the first Saturday in May.
TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini 2.38 Mott)
By all accounts, the son of Bernardini was training like a bomb and was fit and ready to take on his peers in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott seemed optimistic in his pre-race interviews that his charge would give a good account of himself. Alas To Honor and Serve ran out of gas turning for home and struggled mightily to finish third. Now, questions abound. Was he as good as we thought he was? Was a mile and an eighth too much off a layoff? Will bounce off the FOY or move forward? Stay tuned
JAYCITO (Victory Gallop 3.00 Baffert)
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert called another audible with the son of Victory Gallop. Originally being pointed for the Robert B. Lewis (G2), Baffert planned to start his new charge in the San Vicente (G2), a race he won with The Factor. Now the impressive winner of the Norfolk (G2) is scheduled for the Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita. Hopefully Baffert has straightened Jaycito out since his Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile debacle and he finally gets this talented colt to the races.
SANTIVA (Giant’s Causeway 1.67 Kenneally)
Trainer Eddie Kenneally appeared on Saturday’s Equine Forum show broadcast on the Horse Racing Radio Network and all but said his colt would need the Risen Star (G2). The Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner still managed to finish a game second to Mucho Macho Man in a very solid performance, beating some other pretty nice Derby contenders.
TOBY’S CORNER (Bellamy Road 1.86 Motion) Dianne Cotter’s homebred looked impressive winning the Whirlaway at Aqueduct. In the care of top trainer H. Graham Motion, the son of Bellamy Road should run all day and into the night. He’s won three of four starts and has a condition edge over many of the more fancied contenders. Saturday’s Gotham (G3) is next.
DIALED IN (Mineshaft 3.62 Zito)
His Holy Bull (G3) was scintillating to watch and very reminiscent of Silky Sullivan, but it was a one-turn mile that favors closers and his dosage index dangles closer to being a sprinter than a router. That being said, any horse Nick Zito is getting ready for the Triple Crown, that wins a major prep, is an automatic contender in my book. The Fred Astaire of the “Avoid the Favorite†dance, Zito will probably see where Pletcher runs Uncle Mo and zag to the other race on March 12.
ON THE RADAR:
WILKINSON (Lemon Drop Kid 1.18 Howard), MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno 2.43 Ritvo), ASTROLOGY (A.P. Indy 3.42 Asmussen), CALEB’S POSSE (Posse 2.00 Von Hemel), INDIAN WINTER (Indian Charlie 3.00 Hollendorfer), PREMIER PEGASUS (Fusaichi Pegasus 3.62 Cho), CASPER’S TOUCH (Touch Gold 1.53 Mc Peek) and CAL NATION (Distorted Humor 3.00 Pletcher)
