“Three-sixteenths of a mile to go…”

By Jude T. Feld
Updated April 20, 2011

When favored Santiva finished ninth and 19-1 shot Brilliant Speed won the Toyota Blue Grass (G1), you had the feeling that it would be more of the same at Oaklawn Park. A little more than an hour later, highly regarded The Factor folded like a lawn chair when he didn’t make the lead and huge overlay Archarcharch held off the improving Nehro to win the Arkansas Derby (G1).

Santiva’s camp lamented their trip post race, but their Derby trail plan was flawed from the start and it would be a stretch to think he could win the roses off of a crappy effort like that after being off for months previous.

Baffert said The Factor flipped his palate.

According to the Thoroughbred Times, “The soft palate is the tissue at the back of the roof of the mouth that separates the entrance of the esophagus from the entrance to the windpipe. Normally, it forms a tight seal that allows air into the windpipe and food into the esophagus, but not vice versa. Dorsal displacement of the soft palate, or a flipped palate, occurs in certain horses that break this seal and begin breathing through the mouth and the nose at the same time, typically during peak exertion.”

Translation: The horse was running so hard to catch up he flipped his palate and that was that. No myectomy (the fashionable surgery for such conditions) is going to allow The Factor to run a mile and a quarter at top speed in Grade 1 company.

Where are we on this long and winding road to Churchill Downs? With only the Coolmore Lexington (G3) and the Derby Trial (G3) left before the Kentucky Derby, here are our impressions of the top 25 on the graded earnings list:

UNCLE MO – Seems unlikely to run at this juncture
DIALED IN – Still don’t think he wants a mile and a quarter
ARCHARCHARCH – Nice win in Arkansas Derby (G1)
COMMA TO THE TOP – Outdistanced and overmatched
TOBY’S CORNER – Solid contender should love Churchill Downs
PANTS ON FIRE – Game in Louisiana Derby (G2)
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE – Won Santa Anita Derby (G1) on the square
J.P.’S GUSTO – David Hofmans was right
SOLDAT – Puzzling last race but best is a threat
BRILLIANT SPEED – By Barbaro’s sire so why not?
MASTER OF HOUNDS – Derby looking likely for European
NEHRO – Getting good at the right time
TWICE THE APPEAL – Needs to improve his speed figures
MUCHO MACHO MAN – Hard training schedule might put him over the top
DECISIVE MOMENT – Some races give him an outside chance
ANIMAL KINGDOM – Training well at Keeneland after Vinery Spiral (G3) win
ASTROLOGY – To Jerome (G3) and maybe Preakness (G1)
THE FACTOR – Should go back to sprinting
STAY THIRSTY – Blinkers come off after a failed one-race experiment
JAYCITO – No foot, no Derby
SANTIVA – Field filler at best
WATCH ME GO – Back to Calder
SHACKLEFORD – Wiseguy horse from Florida Derby
TWINSPIRED – Could bounce off big Toyota Blue Grass (G1)
SILVER MEDALLION – Going to try Coolmore Lexington (G2)

This entry was posted on Monday, April 18th, 2011 at 6:36 am and is filed under Featured Articles. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.