JUDE FELD’S FLORIDA DERBY (G1) DAY AND LOUISIANA DERBY (G2) DAY GRADED STAKES ANALYSIS
March 29th, 2013
GULFSTREAM PARK
GP 4th Race – The Rampart Stakes (G3)
CIAO BELLA is undefeated on the dirt at Gulfstream Park. She owns the best figures in the field and has the Pletcher-Velazquez team on her side. The daughter of Giant’s Causeway should get a perfect trip behind stablemate AUTHENTICITY too. SUCCESSFUL SONG has demolished her Florida-bred competitors of late and takes on open company now. She has had success at this level in the past and is in line for another big performance. AUTHENTICITY has a checkered past but her 17 1/2-length allowance victory on Valentine’s Day was a thing of beauty. Believe it or not, she’ll have to improve off that effort to win this race.
GP 8th Race – The Gulfstream Oaks (G2)
DREAMING OF JULIA is an ultra-talented filly. She ran well in the Davona Dale (G2), but no doubt need a race having been on vacation since her third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). She gets a five-pound weight break from LIVE LIVELY, who beat her last time, and that could be enough to turn the tables Saturday afternoon. The latter has shown a fondness for Gulfstream Park, winning her last two starts by open lengths. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro will get a stiffer speed test here, but if she continues her improving cycle for talented trainer Mark Hennig, more photo ops could be in her future. CUE THE MOON fits with these gals and she has been training “lights out†for H. James Bond, including a 1:39 4/5 mile workout from the gate at Palm Meadows to ensure her fitness. Having Rosie Napravnik in the saddle only enhances her chances.
GP 9th Race – The Orchid Stakes (G3)
AIGUE MARINE ran likely favorite STARFORMER to three-quarters of a length, when third in the Long Island Handicap (G3), her U.S. debut, while getting two pounds from the winner. She gets six pounds from that foe in the Orchid (G3) and will be a slightly better price. STARFORMER is in great form right now and is certainly the mare to beat. She loses Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado to Palace Malice in the Louisiana Derby (G2), but will have the services of future Hall of Famer Rajiv Maragh. ANGEGREEN is improving but must do so again if she is going to threaten the top two. IRISH MISSION always gives her best and certainly could be in the frame here.
GP 10th Race – The Skip Away Stakes (G3)
CIGAR STREET has developed nicely for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. He has a versatile running style, excellent tactical speed and finds himself in a field lacking in pace. He could pull off a “Graydar-type†upset. It is significant that Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez sticks with him in this spot. PANTS ON FIRE has always been a solid competitor. The Kelly Breen trainee should get a great trip right behind CIGAR STREET. TAKE CHARGE INDY could not keep up with Graydar in the Donn (G1) last month, a race he may have needed. His numbers and style fit here and it would not be a shocker if last year’s Florida Derby (G1) winner showed up in the winners’ circle. GOLDEN TICKET is forced to carry top weight and seems the least likely of the top contenders to find success. The Travers (G1) winner is hard to ignore however.
GP 11th Race – The Appleton Stakes (G3)
ZA APPROVAL had a disastrous trip last time out in the Canadian Turf (G3). He was best on the day but had to settle for a fourth-place check. The Christophe Clement trainee is reunited with his favorite rider, Jose Lezcano, and he gets a much better post position too. SILVER MAX is the controlling speed of the race. He has been absent for a while, but his speedy workouts over the course indicate he’ll be ready to roll from the bell. JOES BLAZING AARON beat the top choice in his latest. He should get a good trip right behind SILVER MAX. He likes this course and has Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez to guide him. COOL BLUE RED HOT took a liking to the turf the first time he tried it and could improve some more for underrated trainer Angel Penna, Jr.
GP 12th Race – The Besilu Stables Florida Derby (G1)
ITSMYLUCKYDAY has the best pace and speed figures by a huge margin in this prestigious event. He has been thoughtfully prepared by his sharp veteran trainer Eddie Plesa, Jr. I could go on and on about the son of Lawyer Ron, but if he runs like he’s been running and SHANGHAI BOBBY and ORB don’t run faster than they ever have in their lives, this race is academic. ORB moved into a different dimension with his Fountain of Youth (G2) victory. He has improved leaps and bounds this winter for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, who says his charge continues to move forward. There is plenty of speed to set up his closing kick and he seems to have the best chance to beat the top pick. SHANGHAI BOBBY no doubt needed the Holy Bull (G3) as trainer Todd Pletcher’s top three-year-olds have all run a tad “short†in their 2013 debuts. He is a colt of high quality who needs Kentucky Derby points desperately. MERIT MAN will probably make the lead. Trainer Bob Hess, Jr. is adept at stretching speedsters out and if the other riders leave Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux to his own devices up front, a theft could be in the offing.
FAIR GROUNDS
FG 7th Race – The Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)
UNLIMITED BUDGET looked sharp winning the Rachel Alexandra (G3) in hand. The undefeated daughter of Street Sense seems to have this field over a barrel. SO MANY WAYS tries two turns for the first time. She is a Grade 1 winner and certainly has the pedigree to stretch out. She’s been training well at Palm Meadows and looks like the favorite’s stiffest competitor. FLASHY GRAY might not be suited to route racing but she always tries hard. SEANEEN GIRL is a nice daughter of Spring at Last. She won the Golden Rod (G2) at Churchill Downs but has had some hiccups in her training since then. A “wait and see†approach might be best with her.
FG 8th Race – The New Orleans Handicap (G2)
FLAT OUT is very finicky about his racetracks. He does not like Gulfstream Park very much or Churchill Downs at all. Belmont Park is just dandy with him and he’s never lost a race at Fair Grounds. Since his fourth-place finish in the Donn (G1), he has been working once a week for Hall of Fame trainer Billy Mott, so it is safe to assume that his usually tender tootsies are in good shape too. He also gets a little break in the weights. MARK VALESKI also loves “Nawlins.†The son of Proud Citizen has been working great for this race and hot-riding James Graham will get a shot at glory on the J. Larry Jones trainee. BOURBON COURAGE is a very nice colt. He gets a four-pound weight shift from GRAYDAR but carries just one pound less than the top choice which may not be enough. Trainer Kellyn Gorder will have him ready to roll and jockey Javier Castellano got to know him last time out. GRAYDAR is fast, but Fair Grounds is deeper than Gulfstream Park and the stretch is longer too. All that being said, it is impossible to leave him off your ticket.
FG 9th Race – The Louisiana Derby (G2)
Trainer Todd Pletcher holds the aces here with PALACE MALICE and REVOLUTIONARY. They are hard to separate but PALACE MALICE ran huge on the stretch-out in the Risen Star (G2) and figures to improve the most Saturday. He has been working with 2012 two-year-old champion Shanghai Bobby and was half a length best in their last drill. Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado takes the reins today and a big race is expected. REVOLUTIONARY seems to relish the Aqueduct inner track. He is a big, long-striding colt and Fair Grounds should prove a lot easier for him to negotiate. His Withers (G3) score was incredibly game and his “marching and chowder society†grew exponentially after that race. He will be tough to deny if he repeats that one. Highly regarded PROUD STRIKE had a dubious trip in the Risen Star (G2). Jockey Corey Nakatani tries his hand today and a more patient trip can be expected from an outside post. The Steve Asmussen charge will be a square price too. CODE WEST has the “Baffert factor†in his favor. He is another who shouldn’t be rushed in the early stages and can improve a bunch if he relaxes early. GROUND TRANSPORT is a son of Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown. He has done nothing wrong and continues to work like a good horse. His trainer, Mike Stidham, thinks his colt rates a chance. If he runs a break out race, I want him in my pick four.
FG 10th Race – The Mervin H. Muniz, Jr. Handicap (G2)
A wide open race ends the day’s festivities and the all-stakes pick four. The “ALL†box could be your friend here as almost any entrant could win this. DOUBLES PARTNER is a multiple Grade 3 winner. He didn’t have the best of trips in the Tampa Bay (G3) and still managed to finish second. He can handle the distance too. OPTIMIZER has won his last two, both at Fair Grounds. He is one of the best grass horses in the United States and certainly should be a factor. TWO MONTHS RENT ran well for trainer James Toner after a little vacay and should improve with that race under his belt. AMIRA’s PRINCE has been perfect since arriving from Ireland. He seems better suited to turf marathons, but he is so sharp right now that he is a “must-use.â€
