Jude Feld’s Preakness Day Stakes Analysis
May 17th, 2013
The Shug McGaughey-trained Orb cruising to victory in Kentucky Derby 139. Can he win the Preakness and shoot for the Triple Crown?Amanda Duckworth Photo
4th Race) Trainer Wesley Ward is a magician with two-year-olds. He saddles NO NAY NEVER and SWEET EMMA ROSE for the Rollicking Stakes. Both come off impressive maiden scores at Keeneland and figure noses apart. KNIT ONE PURR TOO is a speedy daughter of Tale of the Cat. She broke her maiden at Pimlico at first-asking and gets the cozy outside draw.
6th Race) ZEE BROS ran a bang-up race in the Derby Trial (G3) considering the anti-speed bias that night at Churchill Downs. Shortening up on a track that will be better suited to his quick early speed could spell an upset victory in the Chick Lang Stakes. CITY OF WESTON is capable of a strong finish and is the closer to fear in this spot. Jockey Javier Castellano should have him ready to pounce turning for home. Future Hall of Fame football star Wes Welker’s UNDRAFTED found the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) too long. Back sprinting here, the son of Purim should be a major player with his good tactical speed.
7th Race) Sagamore Farm is a Maryland tradition. They will be represented by HEAT PRESS in the James W. Murphy Stakes. A second-place finish in the Federico Tesio Stakes points him out as a top contender. He has never run on the grass but his dam’s side is replete with turf runners, and who can argue with the roll his sire, Malibu Moon, has been on the last few weeks? The potent team of trainer Graham Motion and Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado help his chances too. NOTACATBUTALLAMA does his best work on the turf. He is coming off a layoff but has been training well at Belmont for this engagement. YOUGOTTHATGOINFORYU also tries the turf for the first time. He is speedy and dangerous.
8th Race) MOON PHILLY crushed the local competition at Laurel and moves to the Allare DuPont Distaff (G3) at Pimlico. She continues to train well at Fair Hill and is certainly the filly to beat. BRUSHED BY A STAR has had a distinguished career. She is a multiple Grade 2 winner and could get the crystal with a big run.
9th Race) The Todd Pletcher-trained OLD TUNE is a talented filly. The Keeneland turf course did not suit her early speed running style and the attempt to take her back in the Jenny Wiley (G1) was futile. Look for her to assert herself early in the Gallorette (G3) and repel her challengers late. SAMITAR has a late kick that is most effective at a mile. Jockey Javier Castellano got acquainted with her last time out, so he should be much better at timing her big finish. CHARGED COTTON gets an acid test for class today. A good trip could put her in trifecta contention at a big number.
10th Race) The Maryland Sprint Handicap (G3) is a tremendous handicapping puzzle. In theory, the horses with good recent races should have a substantial edge. HARDENED WILDCAT owns a big turn of foot and should be flying at the speed contingent late. CANDYMAN E. has been running well lately. He runs back at six furlongs here and that should make a big difference to him as he has won six of 10 races. POSEIDON’S WARRIOR is a Grade 1 winner and his Brisnet speed figures fit with this group. He could be posing for pictures if he is ready off the layoff.
11th Race) IMAGINING looked solid winning a conditioned allowance race at Keeneland. He has run well in Grade 1 company and might be coming into his own as a five-year-old. The Phipps runner should get the perfect trip in the Dixie (G2). OPTIMIZER is one of the best turf runners in North America. He can never be left out of your horizontal bets if he runs on the grass. WILCOX INN ran a bang-up race to the ultra-sharp Amira’s Prince in the Mervin Muniz (G2) at Fair Grounds. A repeat of that effort is certainly good enough to win this race.
12th Race) ORB clicks all the boxes. He won the Derby with aplomb, has trained well since and finds only a couple of new shooters to outrun in the Preakness (G1). DEPARTING has been pointing to this race for some time. His Illinois Derby (G3) victory stamps him as a real threat and he has looked very nice training at Pimlico. GOVENOR CHARLIE seems to have overcome the sore foot he suffered while shipping to Louisville. He has posted two excellent six furlong workouts for this race and owns tremendous tactical speed. He could be the “bracket buster†that Golden Soul was in the exotics for the Derby. GOLDENCENTS is the speed of the race. If Kevin Krigger is left to his own devices on the front end, this dynamic duo could be extremely dangerous.
