Jude Feld’s National Graded Stakes Analysis for Saturday, April 19, 2014
April 18th, 2014
AQUEDUCT RACE 8 – THE DISTAFF HANDICAP (G2)
MY PAL CHRISSY has been running well all winter long. The flashier names in here – KAUAI KATIE and MUNNINGS SISTER are not coming off their best efforts, so this might be her opportunity to shine. Drawing outside can only aid her chances and the early pace figures to be quick enough to make her stretch run effective. MUNNINGS SISTER gets a bit of a pass for losing to Judy the Beauty, who came back to win a Grade 1 last weekend. She’s the speed of the speed and that is always dangerous.
KEENELAND RACE 8 – THE BEN ALI (G3)
This race is usually a good handicapping puzzle. RED RIFLE went wire-to-wire in the Maxxim Gold Cup at Sam Houston and finds a similar pace scenario here. He enters this race on the upswing and might be the most talented horse anyway. NEWSDAD ran to his looks in the Pan American (G2). He shoulders a lot of weight here and is dropping back in distance from a turf marathon. That being said, he loves Keeneland and he’s at the top of his game. STEALCASE is an underachiever. When he is in the mood, he can be a formidable foe and seems well-spotted in this event. Trainer Mark Casse had a lot more hair before the son of Lawyer Ron appeared at his barn.
KEENELAND RACE 9 – THE COOLMORE LEXINGTON (G3)
Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners pulled off a major upset last weekend when Danza won the Arkansas Derby (G1). Aron Wellman’s syndicate could take another major three-year-old event if SUPERMONIC continues his meteoric rise to stardom. A big winner six days ago, trainer Todd Pletcher wheels him right back and if the son of Latent Heat wins, he’ll have a month to rest before the Preakness (G1). MR SPEAKER tries polytrack for the first time after a solid effort in the grassy Palm Beach (G3). He flopped in the Holy Bull (G2) on the dirt, but we’ve seen several behind him that day come back to win major races, including Kentucky Derby (G1) hopeful Wicked Strong. AMI’S HOLIDAY is a talented colt who has had his struggles returning to the races after a decent two-year-old season. If trainer Josie Carroll has him fully cranked up, he could be a major threat here.
HAWTHORNE RACE 8 – THE SIXTY SAILS (G3)
When you see champion Beholder and Juddmonte star Close Hatches in the running lines it gets your attention. FLASY AMERICAN hasn’t beaten either one of those fillies, but she hasn’t been disgraced by them either. Her summer form was excellent and she’ll probably run better now that she has a race under her belt. Trainer Peter Walder is a cagey fellow. He’s done a great job with SONJA’S ANGEL this winter at Gulfstream. With good tactical speed, jockey Martin Garcia should be able to work out a nicetrip right behind pacesetters. ANA LUISA is really only three, but the Brazilian-bred daughter of Elusive Quality has some good races on her chart and has trained well into this race. She should get a piece of the pie.
HAWTHORNE RACE 9 – THE ILLINOIS DERBY (G3)
MIDNIGHT HAWK has faced the best company and has never been out of the money. He has struggled mightily to chase home antepost Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite California Chrome and stablemate Chitu in his last two starts. I’ll give him an “A†for effort, but I will try and beat him with DYNAMIC IMPACT. The Mark Casse trainee just broke his maiden, but he did it over a super-sharp Knock Em Flat, who came out of the race to finish an unlucky second in the Northern Spur Stakes at Oaklawn last weekend. The son of Tiznow seems to have put it all together this winter in Hot Springs and a :59 2/5 bullet at Keeneland last Saturday indicates he maintains his sharpness.
CALDER RACE 7 – THE MIAMI MILE (G3)
As the master of the Horse Racing Radio Network, Mike Penna, would say, “There is SUMMER FRONT and there is everybody else.†He is the best horse and only needs jockey Joe Bravo to find a place to run at the right time.
CHARLES TOWN RACE 12 – THE CHARLES TOWN CLASSIC (G2)
I saw GAME ON DUDE win this race at Charles Town last year. He took home the $1 million winner’s check but he really struggled to do it. He’s an amazing gelding and is capable of huge races, but I don’t think the bullring is really his thing. He may win again – I hope so for the fans, but my dough will be on LONG RIVER. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee has run well over the inner track at Aqueduct, which has tight turns similar to Charles Town. He’s super sharp right now and makes his third start of the year. He should be a decent price too since the slots players will take the short number on GAME ON DUDE.
