JUDE FELD’S BREEDERS’ CUP XXXI STAKES ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY & SATURDAY
October 30th, 2014
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2014
6TH Race – The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) * 1 Mile Turf
IMPERIA owns a tremendous turn of foot. The son of Medaglia d’Oro seems like the only American entrant who can threaten what is an always solid Euro crew. He should continue to improve with age and distance. COMMEMORATIVE has fired in all three of his starts. He certainly knows where the wire is and looks like he is heading into this race on the upswing. WAR ENVOY has loads of experience in top company. He has never gone two turns, but his pedigree certainly suggests distance and the Coolmore boys don’t bring stiffs to the Breeders’ Cup. DANNY BOY has been training like a bomb since he shipped to California. You can never count trainer Dale Romans out and this colt has ability. Might have rated him higher if he didn’t have such a hideous post, but jockey Julien Leparoux is the right guy to come from out of the clouds on the grass. HOOTENANNY is from the barn of international trainer deluxe, Wesley Ward. He has an excellent Racing Post rating and could be up to the task. His contending speed is a definite advantage on firm ground.
7th Race – The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) * 1 Mile
GOLDENCENTS is one helluva horse. He is also the defending champion in this race. He had an excellent prep in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1) and is sitting on tilt to defend his crown. TAPITURE has really turned it around after fizzling out on the Triple Crown trail. This is, “The Year of the Three-Year-Old,†and he looks like the biggest threat to the top choice. The ultra-consistent BRONZO is highly rated by Racing Post. If he is ready to fire off a four-month respite, he could have a say in the outcome. PANTS ON FIRE has returned to the form that has made him a fan favorite. He certainly could be part of the trifecta with one of his better efforts.
8th Race – The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) * 1 Mile Turf
LADY ELI owns a devastating closing kick – very unusual for a two-year-old. The daughter of Divine Park is undefeated and may stay so if she continues to develop for trainer Chad Brown. SUNSET GLOW is a top-class filly. She fires every time and has looked fantastic during morning training hours. She’s also got a great draw. OSAILA has won half of her six starts at three different British racecourses. Her Racing Post rating is tops for the Euro invaders and that alone probably makes her the filly to fear. She drew very well too. CONQUEST HARLANATE is certainly a division leader in North America. She’s won three straight races, two on the grass and one on polytrack. Her good tactical speed should allow her to sit a decent trip and her stable has been en fuego all year long. QUALIFY won a Grade 3 by open lengths in her last Irish start. She might be getting good at the right time and cannot be ignored in a very difficult race to handicap. PARTISAN POLITICS closed into a slow pace in the Miss Grillo (G3). She has returned to work well and should get a better trip from the rail here.
9th Race – The Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) * 1 1/8 Miles
In recent years, this race has rivaled the Breeders’ Cup Classic for the most competitive of the two-day event. Not so for the 2014 edition, with the top two wagering choices entering with question marks. CLOSE HATCHES disappointed in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland after reeling off four straight wins. Can she rebound? UNTAPABLE has seen her Brisnet speed figures diminish since her big victory in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Do her Cotillion (G1) score and recent fast works mean she can get back to her previous best? Those two are very good, if not great, fillies and seeing either draped in purple flowers would not be shocking. A possible upsetter is RIA ANTONIA. She has shown a fondness for Santa Anita, ran the best race of her life in the Spinster (G1) and came back to work a “best of the morning†five furlongs at Keeneland. Trainer Tom Amoss seems to have her headed in the right direction for this champion maker and she’ll be a square price. DON’T TELL SOPHIA won the Spinster (G1) last time out and 10 other races in 22 starts. A $1000 Keeneland yearling (no, I did not miss any zeros), she is a poster girl for everyone who dreams about participating in our sport. Her trainer, Phil Sims, is a hard-working, soft-spoken journeyman who oozes class, and it would be an amazing end to an already great story if she pulls off a Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) victory for him after such humble beginnings.
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2014
4th Race – The 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) * 1 1/16 Miles
CONQUEST ECLIPSE has faced top competition in her last two starts and been right there at the wire. Trainer Mark Casse has her on a classic training schedule and the daughter of Malibu Moon continues to work like her tail is on fire. It seems she is set for a top effort. BY THE MOON is a filly of much talent. She has handled everything thrown at her – quite a feat for a two-year-old – in her three-race career. She’s a Grade 1 winner on dirt, but her best surface could be turf. She owns the all-important “intangibles†that make the difference between good and great. ANGELA RENEE has done little wrong. The daughter of Bernardini certainly has a fine record and may go favored in this race. Her Chandelier (G1) victory over the track was visually impressive and trainer Todd Pletcher knows how to win, “when the whole world is watching.†DANETTE ran third to ANGELA RENEE last time out and has trained very well since. The Desormeaux brothers are hoping for a big Breeders’ Cup with their babies.
5th Race – The Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) * 1 ¼ Miles Turf
DAYATTHESPA is one of my favorite fillies of all time. She is a New York-bred and she is a stone runner. Lead her to the races and she is gonna run her ass off – a dream filly really. Many think a mile and a quarter stretches her limits, but the first part, on the Anita Chiquita turf course, is downhill, and she is a tough customer under any circumstances. JUST THE JUDGE is a quality filly. She’ll only have 13 days rest between Grade 1 starts, but she has won off short rest in the past. She’s looked no worse for wear at Santa Anita and should give a good account of herself. DANK is the defending champion. She hasn’t set the world on fire in her last two starts, but her trainer, Barbados native Sir Michael Stoute, is among the best in the world. He didn’t bring her halfway across the globe for the Turf Club lunch. IRISH MISSION got a pitiful ride last time out. She should have won the Rodeo Drive (G1) in a gallop and instead, was lucky to participate here. Don’t fall asleep on this one. Trainer Christophe Clement has had her going great guns all summer long. STEPHANIE’S KITTEN has quietly raced herself back into Grade 1-winning form. The distance of this race is ideal and she continues to train well.
6th Race – The DraftKings Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) * 7 Furlongs
THANK YOU MARYLOU has improved her Brisnet speed figures in each of her last three starts. She exits one of the fastest run races of the year – the Lexus Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland – where she finished a distant third after a very wide trip. Super sharp right now and no doubt a square price, she’s gonna get a few shekels from me. I have been in love with JUDY THE BEAUTY for a long time. Even last year, when she faced the great Groupie Doll, I backed her with the utmost confidence. She has had a curious training schedule of late and I am not aligned to it. Her trainer, Wesley Ward, is not to be second-guessed, but he has tempered my enthusiasm a bit. LEIGH COURT is very good. She showed the ability to rate in the TCA (G2) on the dirt last time out and it would be great to see the ultra-marine and gold colors of Eugene Melnyk (and the Barbados flag) in the BC winners’ circle, as he says adios to Thoroughbred racing. ARTEMIS AGROTERA has a crazy-good turn of foot. Her style might not be the best for Santa Anita, but if these girls get spinning out front, guess who’ll be coming to dinner.
7th Race – The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) * 6 ½ Furlongs Turf
CASPAR NETSCHER seemed to really appreciate Lasix. He hadn’t won a race in a month of Sundays when he captured the Nearctic (G2) at Woodbine at only 9/2. He faces tougher today, but he’s pretty good when he’s right, so he’s a must-use. I’ve always thought UNDRAFTED was a perfect “hill horse.†He gets his chance to prove me right today. His last race was better-than-looked and he has been pointed to this one for a long time. Trainer Gary Mandella tweeted a picture of SILENTIO schooling the other day, and if a horse ever looked on tilt in the paddock, it was him. He’s another that just might love the hill, and although he drew a tough post, he’s going to be a huge number and could be the key to a “life-changer†in the exotics. Trainer David Hofmans (who should be in the Hall of Fame) won this race at boxcars in 2008. He saddles HOME RUN KITTEN. The son of Kitten’s Joy came from dead last to run down the field in the Eddie D. (G3) in his last start. History often repeats itself. Just sayin’. ZA APPROVAL should be in this race, but he is on the alsos because “the committee” made an error. If he gets in, he’s training great and he just got beat by Wise Dan in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) last year. (What were they thinking?) I made a big bet on BOBBY’S KITTEN last year and got a horrible ride. New jock this year, but a different type of race. The old racing adage is, “You get it back in the same place you lost it.”
8th Race – The Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) * 1 1/16 Miles
My East Coast bias tells me DAREDEVIL and CARPE DIEM have faced the toughest competitors, except perhaps Euro invader THE GREAT WAR. DAREDEVIL has impressed me in both of his starts. I love his pedigree and I love that the sharp guys at WinStar Farm have ponied up a bunch of money to buy into him. That tells me he’s very sound right now and that they think he has a big future. CARPE DIEM owns similar form, but not as highly rated on the Brisnet scale. I won’t pass out if he is the WinStar colt who wins. THE GREAT WAR is bred for the dirt, but he’s run very well on the grass – the sign of a classy horse. Well, he should be. He was a $1,000,000 Keeneland yearling purchase by the Coolmore boys. I think the Desormeaux brothers have a big shot to be right there with TEXAS RED. Go back and watch the film of the Front Runner (G1). He made a huge run at the end and Kent saved a little something for this race. We’re talking 30-1 plus here and his chances are far better than that, especially at being part of the exotics. SOUPER COLOSSAL has been ultra-impressive in the mornings since moving to the West Coast. He is an imposing animal with a solid record and might be rated too low here.
9th Race – The Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) * 1 ½ Miles Turf
FLINTSHIRE is one of the best turf marathoners in the world. His recent runner-up finish to the great Treve in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) points to him as the horse to beat – recent action with good form and proven Group 1 ability are a potent combination. TELESCOPE is another who needs no introduction to international racing aficionados. He has been facing top company all year long and never finished out of the frame. His trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, knows how to win the big ones and the son of the great Galileo can be counted on to run his usual excellent race. MAIN SEQUENCE heads the North American contingent. He is undefeated since leaving Great Britain and joining the stable of the great H. Graham Motion, but he faces some tougher customers from his previous home and would need the race of his life to capture an ecorche here. BIG JOHN B is the pride of Chestnut Farm. He has turned into a monster since being haltered for $50,000 at Keeneland last April. His prep in the John Henry (G2) was excellent and he has trained well since. He’ll be a decent price and might be a great exotics tool.
10th Race – The Xpressbet Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) * 6 Furlongs
SECRET CIRCLE is a freak. He’s one of the most brilliant horses I have ever seen and the defending champion here. His third-place finish behind RICH TAPESTRY, off a eight-month respite, should have him primed and ready for a repeat of last year’s victory. I love sprinters on quick turnarounds. SALUTOS AMIGOS just won the Bold Ruler (G3) and fires back in a week. He could pick up a lot of pieces. If RICH TAPESTRY doesn’t do a Chinese version of the “Euro bounce,†he could be a major player. His U.S. debut was visually impressive against top company and he cannot be ignored. He’s worked well since and that is a very positive sign. BOURBON COURAGE finally got to do what many of us thought he should be doing all along – sprint! Guess what happened? He won! He didn’t beat much that day, but it was a step in the right direction for a horse that has banked nearly a million dollars racing in spots that didn’t really suit him. Further improvement will get him on the board here. MICO MARGARITA once was the bomb. Then he fell on hard times. Now it seems his bomb status is returning. He’s another who will be finishing late in a race that figures to have a blistering early pace.
11th Race – The Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) * 1 Mile Turf
TORONADO is the real deal. His trainer Richard Hannon has been very pleased with his preparation for this race and if jockey Richard Hughes can work out any sort of trip from the five-hole, he should be posing for snapshots. MUSTAJEEB is no slouch. He’s had a very productive year in the British Isles and should end it up on a high note for top international trainer Dermot Weld. TRADE STORM is racing in sharp form for trainer David Simcock. His Woodbine Mile (G1) was excellent and the fast early pace of this race should set up his closing charge nicely. SEEK AGAIN owns the best form from North America. He is capable of fantastic runs on his best day but has a little unreliability in his past performances. One of his corkers could get the job done.
12th Race – The Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) * 1 ¼ Miles
To me, this looks like a two-horse race – SHARED BELIEF and TONALIST. If six-for-six didn’t make you a believer in SHARED BELIEF, then his last race should have. He was mugged all the way around the track and still won. Huge race…huge! TONALIST finally put it all together in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). That makes it sound like he hadn’t been running well. On the contrary, but this was what a football analyst might call, “a breakout race.†He is an imposing horse with tons of ability – the Rob Gronkowski of horses. You could almost fit two of SHARED BELIEF inside of him. So, it’s David versus Goliath. Two other horses intrigue me – TOAST OF NEW YORK and CIGAR STREET. The former ran second to SHARED BELIEF in the Pacific Classic (G1) and if he takes to the Santa Anita dirt, I think he could outrun his odds. The latter never runs a bad race and earned a huge pace and speed figure when he won the Skip Away (G3). That race would be very competitive here.
