Kentucky Derby Watch List – Volume 5

By Jude T. Feld

Lots has happened to alter the Kentucky Derby picture in the last fortnight. It has been another form of “March Madness” as some fancied horses have gotten creamed and some new shooters have looked mighty impressive, not to mention Uncle Mo. The final Kentucky Derby (G1) preps begin with the Louisiana Derby (G2) on Saturday, March 26 and hopefully things will come into focus a little quicker. Here’s my current list:

UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie 2.20 Pletcher)

Sometimes you have to wonder about jocks. Arguably the best three-year-old in the country makes his seasonal debut in the Timely Writer Stakes and they let him get away with an opening quarter in 24 2/5 and a half-mile in 49 2/5. Are you kidding me? Pletcher must be rather gleeful that he got Uncle Mo back to the races and was given the nice gift of “walkover” courtesy of the jocks room. This colt “is indeed the real deal” that Tom Durkin says he is.

SOLDAT (War Front 2.47 McLaughlin)

When we interviewed trainer Kiaran McLaughlin on the Friday before the Fountain of Youth (G2), the optimism in his voice was contagious. “It’s just that Soldat is doing great right now,” he said. “Better than ever.” And when he pressed about the colt’s quality, he said, “He’s better than Closing Argument.” That was a huge endorsement to me, as that colt, who lost the Kentucky Derby (G1) by a half-length to Giacomo, was a very talented runner. I think the son of War Front has even more in the tank and is sitting in a cozy spot with three weeks to the Florida Derby (G1) and then five weeks to the first Saturday in May. He worked :48 4/5 on Sunday, March 13, his first breeze since the FOY.

JAYCITO (Victory Gallop 3.00 Baffert)

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had to be pleased with the son of Victory Gallop as he started last but finished fast in the San Felipe (G2), his first start since the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and the first race under his care. With this effort under his belt, Baffert can fine tune Jaycito’s workouts, adding speed and conditioning to the Zayat Stable colorbearer, who should move forward again in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

PREMIER PEGASUS (Fusaichi Pegasus 3.62 Cho)

The ultra-talented colt took the blinkers off and just waltzed home in the San Felipe (G2) after getting a perfect trip. Just like his Kentucky Derby-winning sire, Fusaichi Pegasus, he owns excellent tactical speed and showed an explosive late run. That’s the kind of balance that comes in handy in Louisville. His South Korean-born trainer, Myung Kwon Cho, is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby (G1), having owned Video Ranger who finished fourth to Unbridled in the 1990 edition. Here’s the San Felipe (G2):

STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini 2.25 Pletcher)

Gotham (G3) winner has been stablemate Uncle Mo’s steady workmate this year and it has certainly forced him up the ladder. A nice pedigree and having Pletcher calling the shots certainly doesn’t hurt him either. With Uncle Mo pointing to the Wood (G1) Stay Thirsty will probably head out of town, although there has been speculation that they both might stay put with ‘Mo to the Florida Derby (G1) and ‘Thirsty to the Wood (G1).

TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini 2.38 Mott)

By all accounts, the son of Bernardini was training like a bomb and was fit and ready to take on his peers in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott seemed optimistic in his pre-race interviews that his charge would give a good account of himself. Alas To Honor and Serve ran out of gas turning for home and struggled mightily to finish third. Now, questions abound. Was he as good as we thought he was? Was a mile and an eighth too much off a layoff? Will bounce off that race or move forward? Stay tuned, as all we have to go on now is a pedestrian half-mile move since his race.

SANTIVA (Giant’s Causeway 1.67 Kenneally)

Ran well in the Risen Star (G2) despite needing the race according to his current trainer Eddie Kenneally. Now the plan is to bypass the Louisiana Derby (G2) in favor of the Toyota Blue Grass (G1). Santiva is a talented colt handicapped by a micromanaging owner but as the late Hall of Fame trainer Farrell Jones used to say, “A loaded gun is dangerous in anybody’s hand.”

TOBY’S CORNER (Bellamy Road 1.86 Motion)

Had some high hopes for Dianne Cotter’s homebred after his big Whirlaway victory at Aqueduct but a wide trip in the Gotham (G3) cost him a move forward. All in all it wasn’t a bad performance and getting away from Aqueduct will no doubt help his cause. In the care of top trainer H. Graham Motion, the son of Bellamy Road should run all day and into the night. Belmont (G1)?

ROGUE ROMANCE (Smarty Jones 3.00 McPeek)

Unfortunately will miss the Louisiana Derby (G2) due to a “burned heel.” He’s got talent, he’s got earnings and he had a good prep, but we hate to see a scrambling schedule change with less than two months to the Derby. It looks like trainer Kenny McPeek will point him for the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) over Keeneland’s Polytrack. I won’t count him out just yet but my enthusiasm for him has waned a bit.

BRETHREN (Distorted Humor 3.00 Pletcher)

Looking a little light in the paddock, Brethren was rushed to the lead three-wide, from the outside post, in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), The half-brother to Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Super Saver tired in the stretch to taste defeat for the first time in four starts. I doubt trainer Todd Pletcher gave those senseless instructions so we’ll blame this result on Ramon Dominguez. Still, he was beaten easily by a colt who had never won a stakes race and a gelding who was just claimed for $16,000 – not very inspiring credentials for a Triple Crown run. No wonder Pletcher was disappointed.

ON THE RADAR:

WILKINSON (Lemon Drop Kid 1.18 Howard), DIALED IN (Mineshaft 3.62 Zito), MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno 2.43 Ritvo), ASTROLOGY (A.P. Indy 3.42 Asmussen), CALEB’S POSSE (Posse 2.00 Von Hemel), CASPER’S TOUCH (Touch Gold 1.53 Mc Peek) and CAL NATION (Distorted Humor 3.00 Pletcher)

This entry was posted on Monday, March 14th, 2011 at 7:06 am and is filed under Featured Articles. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.