Kentucky Derby Watch List – Volume 8
April 26th, 2011Updated May 3, 2011
By Jude T. Feld
Who will win that big pot of gold at the end of the Churchill Downs rainbow?DARREN ROGERS PHOTO
With less than a week to go until the first Saturday in May, it is time to focus on who can win the Kentucky Derby (G1) and not worry about the rest of the field. Right now, with the defection of Toby’s Corner, there are eight horses on our list still under consideration. There is no doubt that weather is going to factor in the result, either through adjustments in training and/or the track condition itself. Tread lightly until the last moment. Here’s the latest:
Soldat – Stunk up Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby (G1) after a sparkling win in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said he was very pleased with the son of War Front’s work on April 21 – a :59.00 at Palm Meadows. Declining speed figures are a concern, but if the son of red-hot sire War Front reverts to best form, the rest of the field will be running for second. He loves an off track as well and now the Louisville forecast is for rain all week.
Uncle Mo – The son of Indian Charlie arrived at Churchill on April 18 and according to trainer Todd Pletcher, seems to be training well after his bout with a gastrointestinal problem. Back on his feed, his works leading up to the Derby seem to be pleasing his trainer, but the colt once thought invincible has a few questions to answer.
Archarcharch – The Arkansas Derby winner is another who has improved his speed figures in every race of 2011. Trainer Jenks Fires has done a superb job with his charge. The Derby distance won’t pose any problems for him but mud may be of concern.
Pants on Fire – The Louisiana Derby champ continues to train forwardly for his run for the roses. The son of Jump Start owns excellent tactical speed in a race where many of the top contenders come from far back. Jockey Rosie Napravnik is having a banner year and she has a solid chance to become the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Master of Hounds – Excellent European form gives this interloper a chance in a muddled and muddy Derby season. Confirmed for the Derby by trainer Aidan O’Brien, the son of Kingmambo is currently training at Ballydoyle and is scheduled to arrive at Churchill on May 3.
Dialed In – Trainer Nick Zito is electing to keep the Florida Derby winner at the Palm Meadows Training Center until the last minute, which with all the rain in Kentucky, looks like a great move. Very light in speed figures and questionable at a mile and a quarter, he is sketchy at best to win the roses. Uncle Nick is his best asset and his biggest cheerleader and this year is so crazy….
Nehro – Comes into the Derby on a pattern of improving speed figures and sharp efforts. The Mt. Brilliant Farm-bred has the pedigree to get a mile and a quarter and jockey Corey Nakatani has chosen to ride him over the talented Comma to the Top. He seems to like the slop and with the equilox on his tootsies, that makes sense.
Midnight Interlude – The Santa Anita Derby winner arrived at Churchill Downs on April 21. The Bob Baffert trainee ran a top figure winning his first Grade 1 race, making a bounce a possibility, but he came back to work :59 1/5 13 days hence indicating there still might be more in the tank. His connections certainly merit respect.
