Jude Feld’s Keeneland and Oaklawn Park Graded Stakes Analysis for Saturday, April 13, 2013
April 13th, 2013
This is pretty much the end of the road for the bulk of horses on the Derby trail. It is time to “put up or shut up.” The nice cards at Keeneland and Oaklawn Park will make it a great day of racing and hopefully we can make some dough along the way. Here’s how I see the stakes at both tracks:
KEENELAND 6TH RACE – COMMONWEALTH (G3)
CANDYMAN E likes to win races. The Tony Dutrow trainee is back in sharp form and need only negotiate the seven furlongs of this race to hit the winners’ circle. GANTRY is a top sprinter but he has not been able to get by the talented Delaunay during his winter stay at Fairgrounds. He is the top selection’s main competition. BERNIE THE MAESTRO likes Keeneland and loves these elongated sprints. He has been beating up on easier foes but might be ready to step up to this level.
KEENELAND 7TH RACE – SHAKERTOWN (G3)
PERFECT OFFICER won this race last year and he has worked well in Lexington for his title defense. I give him a slight edge over HAVELOCK, who won the Woodford (G3) at Keeneland under these conditions at the 2011 fall meeting. Jockey Garrett Gomez fits the latter like a glove and will have him moving well in the drive to the wire. BERLINO DI TIGER probably needed his American debut in the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint. The Brazilian star should be much fitter for this race and gets the hot-riding Alan Garcia to guide him.
KEENELAND 8TH RACE – MADISON (G1)
BYRAMA is best sprinting. She drops back in distance for this race and moves to polytrack, a surface she showed a liking for last summer at Del Mar. She’ll be a square price too. JAMAICAN SMOKE is speedy and consistent. She’ll be out winging on the track she broke her maiden on. FANTASY OF FLIGHT is well-drawn and could get a nice stalking trip. It would not be surprising to see her posing for pictures.
KEENELAND 9TH RACE – JENNY WILEY (G1)
SAMITAR has a perfect style for the Keeneland turf course. There is plenty of speed to set up her closing charge and she should be set for her best after a solid comebacker at Gulfstream Park. CENTRE COURT is one of my favorite fillies. She always gives her best effort and has not been worse than second in her last nine starts. OLD TUNE has been impressive in her two starts at Tampa Bay Downs. If Joel Rosario can get her to relax a bit more in the early stages, she could have a major say in the outcome. BETTER LUCKY is a Grade 1 winner but she often needs a start to find her racing legs. If the daughter of Ghostzapper can reverse that trend, she is a top contender.
KEENELAND 10TH RACE – TOYOTA BLUE GRASS (G1)
UNCAPTURED likes polytrack. His initial 2013 start in the Spiral (G2) was excellent and he has come back to work well in the interim. Jockey Miguel Mena gets along well with him and trainer Mark Casse has already hit the winners’ circle multiple times at this spring meeting. PALACE MALICE had a horrid trip down the stretch in the Louisiana Derby (G2) two weeks ago. He would be my top pick if he was by almost any other sire but Curlin, whose offspring detest polytrack. JAVA’S WAR ran a bang-up second to superhorse Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He’s been working good at Gulfstream for this and gets a new jockey in Julien Leparoux. DYNAMIC SKY, another Casse trainee, has run well at Keeneland and owns some representative races. “Don’t give up on him,†his trainer said.
OAKLAWN PARK 8TH RACE – OAKLAWN HANDICAP (G2)
There is FORT LARNED and then there is everyone else in here. (By the way, it is very disappointing that Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas is running OPTIMIZER back on the dirt.)
OAKLAWN PARK 9TH RACE – COUNT FLEET SPRINT HANDICAP (G3)
JUSTIN PHILLIP waltzed home an easy winner of his prep for this race, illustrating how effective California speed is out of town. He has faced most of the country’s best sprinters and seems to be in a solid spot for a repeat victory. LAURIE’S ROCKET has an affinity for Oaklawn Park. He’s had a great meeting for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Having Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens in the saddle won’t hinder him either. GENTLEMEN’S BET has never tasted defeat. He gets the acid test for class today, but I have always felt the son of Half Ours was a good colt.
OAKLAWN PARK 10th RACE – ARKANSAS DERBY (G1)
OVERANALYZE can really run. On many Kentucky Derby lists prior to the Gotham, his supporters jumped off the bandwagon when he came up short in his 2013 debut. He won the Remsen (G3) at today’s mile and an eighth distance, earning the fastest speed figure any two-year-old ran going long in 2012. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been more aggressive with him in the morning and jockey Rafael Bejarano is an able substitute for the ailing John Velazquez. It is “now or never†time for the Repole Stable star. OXBOW fires every time. Gary Stevens will get the best from him. WAR ACADEMY stretched out and earned his highest speed figure to date – a very good sign. He steps into stakes company here but should be up to the task. DEN’S LEGACY is another who never runs a bad race. His forte may be turf and/or polytrack so it is surprising he didn’t go to the Toyota Blue Grass (G1).
